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Most Accurate Forecast Model This Season

Every major weather model, ranked by how close it came to the snow that actually fell — measured against SNOTEL and resort-reported ground truth, across 63,983 verifications. Lower error is sharper. Updated October 25, 2026.

🏆 SnowSure’s 7-model blend wins
SnowSure blend error vs measured snowfall this season.
5.68 cm error
Full season1–3 day4–7 day8–14 day
  1. 1
    NBM
    5.23 cm mean error
  2. 2
    UKMO
    6.03 cm mean error
  3. 3
    ECMWF
    6.05 cm mean error
  4. 4
    JMA
    6.16 cm mean error
  5. 5
    GEM
    6.3 cm mean error
  6. 6
    ICON
    6.77 cm mean error
  7. 7
    GFS
    6.87 cm mean error
  8. 8
    METEOSWISS
    7.36 cm mean error
  9. 9
    Météo-France
    7.59 cm mean error

Method: mean absolute error between each model’s daily snowfall forecast and measured snowfall (SNOTEL + resort-reported), snow days only. The blend combines all reporting models.

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