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Most Accurate Forecast Model This Season

Every major weather model, ranked by how close it came to the snow that actually fell — measured against SNOTEL and resort-reported ground truth, across 48,120 verifications. Lower error is sharper. Updated October 25, 2026.

🏆 SnowSure’s 7-model blend wins
Beats the best single model (NAM) by 5% this season.
5.2 cm error
Full season1–3 day4–7 day8–14 day
  1. 1
    Met Norway
    4.1 cm mean error
  2. 2
    NAM
    5.49 cm mean error
  3. 3
    ECMWF
    5.66 cm mean error
  4. 4
    UKMO
    5.72 cm mean error
  5. 5
    JMA
    5.77 cm mean error
  6. 6
    Météo-France
    5.86 cm mean error
  7. 7
    ICON
    5.88 cm mean error
  8. 8
    HRRR
    5.97 cm mean error
  9. 9
    GEM
    6.06 cm mean error
  10. 10
    NBM
    6.2 cm mean error
  11. 11
    GFS
    6.27 cm mean error
  12. 12
    METEOSWISS
    7.22 cm mean error
  13. 13
    ICON2I
    7.33 cm mean error

Method: mean absolute error between each model’s daily snowfall forecast and measured snowfall (SNOTEL + resort-reported), snow days only. The blend combines all reporting models.

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