Most Accurate Forecast Model This Season

Every major weather model, ranked by how close it came to the snow that actually fell — measured against SNOTEL and resort-reported ground truth, across 129,266 verifications. Lower error is sharper. Updated October 25, 2026.

1. 1
   Met Norway
   4.1 cm mean error
2. 2
   NAM
   5.49 cm mean error
3. 3
   NBM
   5.64 cm mean error
4. 4
   UKMO
   5.88 cm mean error
5. 5
   HRRR
   6.04 cm mean error
6. 6
   JMA
   6.08 cm mean error
7. 7
   ECMWF
   6.22 cm mean error
8. 8
   GEM
   6.25 cm mean error
9. 9
   Météo-France
   6.25 cm mean error
10. 10
    ICON
    6.38 cm mean error
11. 11
    GFS
    6.67 cm mean error
12. 12
    METEOSWISS
    7.27 cm mean error
13. 13
    ICON2I
    7.36 cm mean error

Method: mean absolute error between each model’s daily snowfall forecast and measured snowfall (SNOTEL + resort-reported), snow days only. The blend combines all reporting models.

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