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Zao ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Asia

Zao Snow Forecast

Projected to open December 5, 2026

Best months to book: January, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Dec 5

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 28

3d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 30, 11:06 PM•Weather at base: 780m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Dec 5

Zao is projected to open December 5, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: January, February, March. Best weeks: 20 Mar–25 Mar, 27 Mar–2 Apr, 3 Apr–9 Apr.Dec1Jan2Feb3MarAprOpens 5 DecCloses 26 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1January67cm avg
  2. #2February45cm avg
  3. #3March39cm avg · last season 13.8

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 20 Mar – 25 Mar · last season 16.2
  2. #2 27 Mar – 2 Apr · last season 9
  3. #3 3 Apr – 9 Apr · last season 13.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:06 PM

1cm
Season
0cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
Seasontotal
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
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—
—
—
—
—
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—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,221m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
7° / -1°
1 Sun
3° / -3°
2 Mon
6° / -1°
3 Tue
4° / -3°
4 Wed
5° / -3°
5 Thu
3° / -3°
6 Fri
9° / -1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions🌧️🌧️🌧️🌤️☁️☁️☁️🌧️☁️⛅☀️☀️🌧️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️☁️⛅🌧️🌧️
light drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlemostly clearcloudycloudycloudylight drizzlecloudysome cloudsclearclearlight drizzlecloudycloudylight drizzlelight drizzlecloudysome cloudslight drizzlelight drizzle
Mid-mountain1,221 mModeled
Temp°C7°8°5°3°5°3°7°7°5°4°5°3°4°6°1°5°7°5°8°8°6°
Feels like°C4°3°0°-3°-1°-3°4°6°2°0°1°-1°0°2°-3°0°3°0°7°6°3°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.51.40.4···1.02.01.60.60.41.2···5.08.37.10.91.53.4
Windkm/h122013221912654141871314310888189
Summit1,661 mModeled
Temp°C5°5°2°0°2°0°4°4°3°1°2°0°1°3°-2°2°4°2°6°5°3°
Feels like°C1°0°-3°-6°-4°-6°1°2°-2°-3°-2°-4°-3°-1°-6°-3°-1°-4°4°2°-1°
Snowcm·········0.3·0.2···0.4·1.4··0.6
Precipmm0.51.40.4···1.02.01.60.60.41.2···5.08.37.10.91.53.4
Windkm/h122013221912654141871314310888189
Base780 mModeled
Temp°C10°11°8°6°8°6°10°10°8°7°8°5°7°9°4°8°10°8°11°11°9°
Feels like°C8°7°4°0°2°0°7°9°5°3°4°2°4°5°0°4°6°3°11°9°6°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.51.30.4···1.01.91.60.60.41.2···5.08.37.10.91.53.4
Windkm/h122013221912654141871314310888189
Humidity%857688665779738785835592815684929786919197
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Zao, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Zao (japan), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Japan (Tohoku & Niigata) region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Zao El Niño rank & forecast

Zao ranks #209 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, 0% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#209 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: 0% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Zao averaged +0% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Zao has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -15%, '15-16 -37%, '23-24 +53%.

'97-98 −15%'15-16 −37%'23-24 +53%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Zao, ERA5 season snowfall median was 189 cm (74 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

189cm

10 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

189cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10189cm182cm – 280cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12195cm153cm – 266cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8217cm140cm – 273cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Zao

How much snow is Zao getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Zao over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Zao?
The full 14-day forecast for Zao — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Zao?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.