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Zakopane ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Europe

Zakopane Snow Forecast

Projected to open January 13, 2027

Best months to book: February, March, January · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jan 13 — closed April 19

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 26

4d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

11cm

7-Day Forecast

8cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 11:06 PM•Weather at base: 1,014m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Jan 13

Zakopane is projected to open January 13, 2027. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January. Best weeks: 23 Mar–29 Mar, 30 Mar–5 Apr, 6 Apr–12 Apr.3Jan1Feb2MarAprOpens 13 JanCloses 19 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1February44cm avg
  2. #2March38cm avg · last season 46.5
  3. #3January44cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 23 Mar – 29 Mar · last season 43
  2. #2 30 Mar – 5 Apr · last season 46.7
  3. #3 6 Apr – 12 Apr · last season 23.1

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:06 PM

15cm
Season
11cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
6cm
Today
2cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
3
0
0
4
4
Seasontotal
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
6
1
—
0
1
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,501m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
-3° / -6°
1 Sun
-4° / -7°
2 Mon
-4° / -7°
3 Tue
-5° / -7°
4 Wed
-5° / -9°
5 Thu
-1° / -10°
6 Fri
0° / -6°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions❄️❄️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️❄️☁️🌧️🌧️☁️☁️⛅⛅🌤️☀️☀️☀️
snowsnowcloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudylight snowcloudylight drizzlelight drizzlecloudycloudysome cloudssome cloudsmostly clearclearclearclear
Mid-mountain1,501 mModeled
Temp°C-1°-1°-2°-2°0°-3°-1°0°-2°-2°-2°-3°-3°-2°-4°-3°0°-5°-1°1°-3°
Feels like°C-5°-5°-5°-6°-5°-7°-6°-5°-7°-7°-7°-7°-7°-7°-9°-6°-3°-8°-3°-1°-5°
Snowcm1.91.91.80.10.10.1···0.2·0.30.20.20.2··0.20.20.10.3
Precipmm2.82.82.60.20.10.2··0.10.30.10.40.30.40.3·0.10.30.40.10.4
Windkm/h85497787810910979534122
Summit1,987 mModeled
Temp°C-4°-4°-5°-5°-4°-6°-5°-3°-5°-5°-5°-6°-6°-6°-7°-6°-4°-8°-4°-2°-7°
Feels like°C-8°-8°-8°-10°-9°-10°-9°-9°-10°-11°-10°-11°-11°-10°-12°-9°-6°-11°-7°-4°-9°
Snowcm22.120.20.10.2···0.2·0.30.20.30.3·0.10.30.30.10.4
Precipmm2.92.92.60.20.10.2··0.10.30.10.40.30.40.3·0.10.30.40.10.4
Windkm/h85497787810910979534122
Base1,014 mModeled
Temp°C2°2°1°1°2°0°0°1°0°0°0°0°0°0°-1°0°2°-2°2°4°0°
Feels like°C-1°-1°-1°-3°-2°-3°-2°-2°-3°-3°-3°-4°-3°-3°-5°-2°1°-5°0°3°-2°
Snowcm0.40.21.10.20.10.3·0.10.20.30.20.60.20.20.3··0.10.1·0.2
Precipmm2.53.02.80.40.20.4·0.20.40.40.30.80.20.30.4··0.20.30.10.2
Windkm/h85497787810910979534122
Humidity%979598969698969697989998979695294960707474
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Zakopane, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Zakopane (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Tatras region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Zakopane El Niño rank & forecast

Zakopane ranks #218 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, 0% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#218 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: 0% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Zakopane averaged 0% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -32%, '15-16 -38%, '23-24 +68%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −32%'15-16 −38%'23-24 +68%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Zakopane, ERA5 season snowfall median was 193 cm (76 in), about 4% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

193cm

10 El Niño winters · 4% below median

All-season median

201cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10193cm172cm – 347cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12208cm178cm – 395cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8187cm149cm – 277cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Zakopane

How much snow is Zakopane getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 8 cm (3 in) of snow at Zakopane over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Zakopane?
The full 14-day forecast for Zakopane — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Zakopane?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.