Oceania
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Last Snowfall
Oct 31
Past 24 Hours
4cm
Resort reportedPast 48 Hours
4cm
Past 10 Days
6cm
7-Day Forecast
0cm
Snow Depth
3cm
Resort reportedPowder Days
10
2026 season
Bluebird Days
2
2026 season
Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.
Whakapapa is currently experiencing partly cloudy conditions with a snow depth of 3cm. The resort has received 3cm of new snow in the past week, maintaining a season total of 119cm, which is 94% of the 5-year average for this time of year.
AI-generated summaryDepth
3cm depth — upper mountain may be better.
Recent
In the last week, there has been a total of 3cm of snowfall.
Forecast
Light snow possible this week.
Historic
This season-to-date is 94% of the 5-year average, which is 127cm.
Data updated Fri, Oct 30, 11:06 PM UTC
Updated Oct 30 at 11:06 PM
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
No measurement at mid height (1,965m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.
31 Sat 0° / -8° | 1 Sun 3° / -6° | 2 Mon 3° / -3° | 3 Tue 5° / -1° | 4 Wed 6° / -1° | 5 Thu 8° / 1° | 6 Fri 8° / 2° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 7 Sat | 8 Sun | 9 Mon | 10 Tue | 11 Wed | 12 Thu | 13 Fri | |
| Conditions | ☁️ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ⛅ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ⛅ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | |||||||
| cloudy | mostly clear | clear | clear | mostly clear | clear | light drizzle | light drizzle | light drizzle | light drizzle | light drizzle | light drizzle | some clouds | light drizzle | light drizzle | some clouds | light drizzle | cloudy | light drizzle | drizzle | light drizzle | ||||||||
| Mid-mountain1,965 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | -3° | 3° | -3° | -1° | 5° | -2° | 1° | 5° | 1° | 2° | 7° | 3° | 4° | 7° | 4° | 5° | 9° | 4° | 5° | 8° | 6° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -8° | -2° | -7° | -4° | 0° | -5° | -5° | -1° | -4° | -1° | 4° | -1° | 2° | 6° | 1° | 3° | 7° | 2° | 3° | 6° | 3° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.2 | · | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | 0.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 6.0 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 10 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |||||||
| Summit2,300 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | -6° | 0° | -5° | -3° | 3° | -4° | -2° | 2° | -1° | 0° | 4° | 0° | 2° | 5° | 1° | 3° | 7° | 2° | 3° | 6° | 3° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -11° | -4° | -10° | -6° | -2° | -8° | -7° | -4° | -6° | -3° | 1° | -3° | 0° | 3° | -1° | 1° | 4° | 0° | 0° | 3° | 0° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.3 | · | 0.4 | 0.4 | · | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | 0.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 6.0 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 10 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |||||||
| Base1,630 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | -1° | 5° | -1° | 1° | 8° | 0° | 3° | 7° | 3° | 4° | 9° | 5° | 6° | 9° | 6° | 7° | 11° | 7° | 7° | 10° | 8° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -6° | 1° | -5° | -1° | 3° | -3° | -2° | 1° | -1° | 2° | 6° | 2° | 5° | 9° | 4° | 6° | 9° | 5° | 6° | 9° | 6° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 6.0 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 10 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 85 | 59 | 81 | 72 | 69 | 81 | 90 | 79 | 97 | 92 | 73 | 95 | 81 | 70 | 95 | 84 | 67 | 94 | 94 | 89 | 97 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| Sunhours | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.
Every model for Whakapapa, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Whakapapa (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →New Zealand region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Whakapapa is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 5 past El Niño winters at Whakapapa, ERA5 season snowfall median was 42 cm (17 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
42cm
5 El Niño winters · 3% above median
All-season median
41cm
Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 5 | 42cm | 26cm – 45cm | 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 18cm | 7cm – 51cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 42cm | 23cm – 126cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
