El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Togakushi El Niño rank & forecast
Togakushi ranks #309 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −7% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.
#309 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar
Strong-event signal: −7% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Togakushi averaged -7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -14%, '15-16 -26%, '23-24 +20%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 −15%'15-16 −26%'23-24 +20%
