El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Thredbo El Niño rank & forecast
Thredbo ranks #483 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −35% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.
Strong-event signal: −35% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Thredbo averaged -35% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -67%, '15-16 -48%, '23-24 +11%. A pattern, not a promise.
In-season scorecard
Predicted signal
−35%
Measured to date
−8%
Season total
110 cm
Vs predicted
+26%
Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.
