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Taos Ski Valley ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Taos Ski Valley Snow Forecast

Opens November 25, 2026

Best months to book: February, March, January · last season + 30-yr record

Opens Nov 25

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 25

5d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

3cm

7-Day Forecast

12cm

Snow Depth

--

❄ Heavy, wet
Updated: Oct 30, 11:01 PM•Weather at base: 2,804m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Opens Nov 25

Taos Ski Valley opens November 25, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 8 Mar–14 Mar.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarOpens 25 NovCloses 29 Mar

Best months to book

  1. #1February26cm avg · last season 17
  2. #2March27cm avg · last season 13.1
  3. #3January23cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 17
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 14.9
  3. #3 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 14.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:01 PM

12cm
Season
5cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
11cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
5
Seasontotal
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
0
2
4
6
0
—
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past snow measured by Taos Powderhorn SNOTEL at 3,359 m (11,021 ft), mid height.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
6° / -5°
31 Sat
2° / -4°
1 Sun
5° / -4°
2 Mon
0° / -8°
3 Tue
2° / -11°
4 Wed
3° / -8°
5 Thu
1° / -10°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☁️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️❄️❄️🌧️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️
cloudylight drizzlecloudylight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlecloudylight snowlight snowrainclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclear
Mid-mountain3,304 mModeled
Temp°C2°7°2°1°4°1°2°5°2°-1°-1°-1°-3°3°-3°-1°5°-3°-2°3°-3°
Feels like°C-1°4°-3°-3°0°-2°-1°3°-1°-5°-6°-5°-7°0°-8°-2°1°-5°-7°-2°-7°
Snowcm··0.41.7·1.70.5·3.62.82.23.1········0.2
Precipmm·0.41.93.01.03.25.69.923.54.13.014.4········0.3
Windkm/h462912221141210113722126552
Summit3,804 mModeled
Temp°C-1°4°-1°-2°0°-2°-1°1°-1°-4°-4°-4°-6°0°-6°-4°1°-6°-5°0°-6°
Feels like°C-5°0°-6°-7°-4°-6°-4°-1°-5°-9°-9°-9°-10°-4°-11°-5°-3°-9°-10°-6°-11°
Snowcm··1.420.42.241.68.32.82.311.9········0.3
Precipmm·0.52.02.90.93.46.09.923.54.13.014.2········0.3
Windkm/h462912221141210113722126552
Base2,804 mModeled
Temp°C6°11°5°4°7°4°5°8°5°3°2°3°0°6°0°2°8°0°1°6°0°
Feels like°C3°8°1°1°4°1°3°7°3°-1°-2°-1°-3°4°-4°2°4°-2°-3°1°-4°
Snowcm···0.1·0.1··0.10.50.70.8········0.2
Precipmm·1.32.02.50.73.45.37.621.94.23.014.6········0.3
Windkm/h462912221141210113722126552
Humidity%575171977990898586998998794478374266736178
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Taos Ski Valley, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Taos Ski Valley (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Taos Ski Valley El Niño rank & forecast

Taos Ski Valley ranks #105 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +8% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#105 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +8% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Taos Ski Valley averaged +8% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Taos Ski Valley sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -19%, '15-16 -16%, '23-24 +60%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −20%'15-16 −16%'23-24 +60%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Taos Ski Valley, ERA5 season snowfall median was 152 cm (60 in), about 6% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

152cm

10 El Niño winters · 6% above median

All-season median

143cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10152cm136cm – 194cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12142cm109cm – 176cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8141cm103cm – 186cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Taos Ski Valley

How much snow is Taos Ski Valley getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 12 cm (5 in) of snow at Taos Ski Valley over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Taos Ski Valley?
The full 14-day forecast for Taos Ski Valley — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Taos Ski Valley?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.