Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Status unconfirmed

Best months to book: February, March, January · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Status unconfirmed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 30, 9:08 PM•Weather at base: 265m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Status unconfirmed

Sommet Morin Heights is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February40cm avg
#2March36cm avg
#3January43cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

There has been no new snow in the past week.

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Forecast

Dry for the next 7 days.

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Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is currently at 0cm, compared to a 5-year average of 2cm.

Status unconfirmed · Data updated Fri, Oct 30, 09:08 PM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 9:08 PM

Freezing line

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Season

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Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

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Today

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Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

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TueOct 20

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TODAY30

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SunNov 1

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Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (365m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 10° / 3°			31 Sat 4° / -3°			1 Sun 11° / -1°			2 Mon 9° / 5°			3 Tue 9° / 6°			4 Wed 14° / 6°			5 Thu 14° / 7°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	⛅	☁️	⛅	🌤️	☁️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	🌧️	☀️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌧️
	some clouds	cloudy	some clouds	mostly clear	cloudy	clear	clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	light drizzle	clear	light drizzle	light drizzle	drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle
Mid-mountain365 mModeled
Temp°C	7°	7°	6°	0°	4°	1°	2°	9°	4°	8°	11°	8°	8°	10°	9°	9°	13°	9°	11°	14°	12°	10°	7°	6°	6°	5°	5°	5°
Feels like°C	3°	2°	3°	-4°	-1°	-3°	-2°	6°	0°	4°	7°	6°	6°	5°	6°	7°	12°	7°	8°	10°	9°	13°	10°	8°	4°	0°	0°	1°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.2	·	0.4	0.7	3.1	0.3	0.2	2.6	2.4	2.0	6.2	8.4	0.9	2.5	0.9	0.5	0.2	1.7
Windkm/h	16	20	16	13	17	11	13	16	14	15	12	13	10	8	6	10	8	7	10	13	11	12	8	6	14	16	8	12
Summit465 mModeled
Temp°C	6°	6°	6°	-1°	4°	0°	1°	8°	3°	7°	10°	8°	8°	10°	8°	8°	12°	9°	10°	13°	11°	10°	7°	6°	5°	4°	5°	5°
Feels like°C	2°	1°	2°	-5°	-1°	-4°	-3°	5°	-1°	3°	7°	5°	5°	5°	6°	6°	11°	6°	7°	9°	8°	12°	9°	7°	3°	-1°	-1°	1°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.2	·	0.4	0.7	3.1	0.3	0.2	2.7	2.4	2.1	6.3	8.2	0.9	2.5	0.9	0.5	0.2	1.7
Windkm/h	16	20	16	13	17	11	13	16	14	15	12	13	10	8	6	10	8	7	10	13	11	12	8	6	14	16	8	12
Base265 mModeled
Temp°C	8°	8°	7°	0°	5°	1°	2°	9°	4°	9°	12°	9°	9°	11°	9°	10°	13°	10°	12°	15°	12°	11°	8°	7°	6°	6°	6°	6°
Feels like°C	4°	3°	3°	-3°	0°	-3°	-1°	7°	1°	5°	8°	7°	7°	6°	7°	8°	12°	8°	9°	11°	10°	14°	11°	9°	5°	0°	0°	2°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.2	·	0.4	0.7	3.1	0.3	0.2	2.6	2.4	2.0	6.2	8.4	0.9	2.5	0.9	0.5	0.2	1.7
Windkm/h	16	20	16	13	17	11	13	16	14	15	12	13	10	8	6	10	8	7	10	13	11	12	8	6	14	16	8	12
Humidity%	90	76	85	91	59	79	88	65	88	95	97	96	99	98	100	89	74	95	97	100	97	95	94	100	89	79	83	90
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,450	2,150	2,900	2,750	2,900	3,300	2,800
Sunhours																						3.3	3.1	0	3.3	2.3	7.9	2.7

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Sommet Morin Heights, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Sommet Morin Heights (east coast), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Northeast US region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Sommet Morin Heights El Niño rank & forecast

Sommet Morin Heights ranks #246 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −3% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#246 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −3% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Sommet Morin Heights averaged -2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -3%, '15-16 0%, '23-24 -4%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −3%'15-16 0%'23-24 −4%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Sommet Morin Heights, ERA5 season snowfall median was 211 cm (83 in), about 2% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

211cm

10 El Niño winters · 2% below median

All-season median

216cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	211cm	190cm – 217cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	217cm	202cm – 229cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	232cm	202cm – 241cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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