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Snow Farm ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Oceania

Snow Farm Snow Forecast

30

Solid · 2026 season average

Projected to open June 2027 · average of 27 verified open days

Best months to book: August, September · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jun 2027 — closed September 13

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 31

Past 24 Hours

2cm

Past 48 Hours

5cm

Past 10 Days

5cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

8

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 9:08 PM•Weather at base: 1,520m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
30

Solid

2026 season average

Snow Farm is projected to open June 2027. Last season it averaged 30.3 across 27 verified open days.

Best months to book: August, September. Best weeks: 25 Aug–31 Aug, 18 Aug–24 Aug, 1 Sep–7 Sep.1Aug2SepOpened 18 AugClosed 13 Sep

Best months to book

  1. #1August24cm avg · last season 30.1
  2. #2September26cm avg · last season 30.5

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 25 Aug – 31 Aug · last season 42.6
  2. #2 18 Aug – 24 Aug · last season 17.7
  3. #3 1 Sep – 7 Sep · last season 31.3

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 26 Aug – 8 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 9:08 PM

136cm
Season
5cm
Past 10 days48H 5cm · 24H 2cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
0
Seasontotal
3
2
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,743m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
4° / -8°
1 Sun
4° / -6°
2 Mon
10° / 1°
3 Tue
8° / -3°
4 Wed
10° / 1°
5 Thu
11° / 1°
6 Fri
13° / 3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions🌤️⛅🌤️☁️☁️⛅🌧️🌧️☀️🌤️🌧️🌤️🌧️🌧️🌧️⛅🌧️🌧️⛅🌤️🌧️
mostly clearsome cloudsmostly clearcloudycloudysome cloudsdrizzlelight drizzleclearmostly clearlight drizzlemostly clearlight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlesome cloudslight drizzlelight drizzlesome cloudsmostly clearlight drizzle
Mid-mountain1,743 mModeled
Temp°C-4°4°-1°0°6°1°5°10°5°2°8°3°3°9°5°6°12°6°6°11°7°
Feels like°C-9°0°-6°-5°0°-4°2°7°1°-1°6°0°3°8°4°4°10°4°5°10°6°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.10.52.60.31.2·0.21.80.70.61.10.20.40.30.40.72.6
Windkm/h81381022107181025529361348175
Summit1,965 mModeled
Temp°C-5°3°-3°-1°4°0°4°9°3°0°6°1°2°8°3°4°10°5°5°10°5°
Feels like°C-10°-2°-8°-7°-2°-5°0°6°-1°-2°4°-2°1°7°2°2°8°3°3°9°5°
Snowcm············0.2·0.2······
Precipmm····0.10.52.60.31.2·0.21.80.70.61.10.20.40.30.40.72.6
Windkm/h81381022107181025529361348175
Base1,520 mModeled
Temp°C-3°6°0°2°7°2°7°12°6°3°9°4°5°11°6°7°13°8°8°13°8°
Feels like°C-7°1°-5°-4°1°-2°4°9°2°1°8°1°4°10°5°5°12°6°7°12°8°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.10.52.60.31.2·0.21.80.70.61.10.20.40.30.40.72.6
Windkm/h81381022107181025529361348175
Humidity%695368786275815571766583936687805682835680
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Snow Farm, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Snow Farm (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Snow Farm El Niño rank & forecast

Snow Farm ranks #92 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#92 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Snow Farm averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Snow Farm sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -5%, '15-16 +27%, '23-24 +5%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −5%'15-16 +27%'23-24 +5%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+9%

Measured to date

+11%

Season total

136 cm

Vs predicted

+2%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Snow Farm, ERA5 season snowfall median was 125 cm (49 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

125cm

5 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

125cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent5125cm117cm – 136cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4127cm103cm – 158cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21124cm99cm – 153cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Snow Farm

How much snow is Snow Farm getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Snow Farm over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Snow Farm?
The full 14-day forecast for Snow Farm — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Snow Farm?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.