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Sipapu ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Sipapu Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 21, 2026

Best months to book: February, March, January · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 21

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

3cm

7-Day Forecast

2cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 30, 11:05 PM•Weather at base: 2,591m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 21

Sipapu is projected to open November 21, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January. Best weeks: 1 Mar–7 Mar, 22 Feb–28 Feb, 16 Mar–21 Mar.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarOpens 21 NovCloses 22 Mar

Best months to book

  1. #1February25cm avg · last season 15.4
  2. #2March29cm avg · last season 10.4
  3. #3January23cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 12.3
  2. #2 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 15.4
  3. #3 16 Mar – 21 Mar · last season 9.8

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:05 PM

5cm
Season
5cm
Past 10 days48H 3cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
2cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
3
Seasontotal
3
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
—
0
—
1
0
—
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past snow measured by Tres Ritos SNOTEL at 2,664 m (8,740 ft), mid height.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
12° / 1°
31 Sat
9° / 2°
1 Sun
13° / 3°
2 Mon
7° / -1°
3 Tue
9° / -3°
4 Wed
11° / -1°
5 Thu
8° / -4°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☁️☁️☁️🌧️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️
cloudycloudycloudylight drizzlecloudycloudycloudycloudycloudylight drizzledrizzlelight drizzleclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclear
Mid-mountain2,702 mModeled
Temp°C6°11°6°5°8°4°7°11°6°3°2°3°1°7°0°3°9°1°1°7°0°
Feels like°C4°8°2°1°4°2°4°8°4°-1°-3°-1°-2°4°-3°2°5°-2°-2°2°-4°
Snowcm·····0.3···0.70.20.4·····0.10.1·0.8
Precipmm·0.22.10.90.43.51.31.713.34.72.69.9··0.1··0.10.1·1.2
Windkm/h5531216492162119175947169455
Summit2,813 mModeled
Temp°C5°10°5°4°7°4°6°10°5°2°2°2°0°6°-1°2°8°0°1°7°0°
Feels like°C3°7°1°1°4°1°3°7°3°-2°-4°-2°-3°3°-4°1°4°-2°-3°1°-4°
Snowcm·····0.4···1.20.91.1·····0.10.1·0.8
Precipmm·0.22.01.00.23.31.31.713.34.72.69.9··0.1··0.10.1·1.2
Windkm/h5531216492162119175947169455
Base2,591 mModeled
Temp°C7°12°6°6°9°5°7°11°7°3°3°3°1°8°0°3°10°1°2°8°1°
Feels like°C4°9°3°2°5°3°5°9°5°-1°-2°-1°-1°5°-2°3°6°-1°-2°3°-3°
Snowcm·····0.3···0.70.40.2········0.2
Precipmm·0.22.11.00.43.51.21.713.55.03.110.1··0.1·····0.3
Windkm/h5531216492162119175947169455
Humidity%614674966791856683978899713576363359755682
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Sipapu, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Sipapu (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Sipapu El Niño rank & forecast

Sipapu ranks #44 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +13% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#44 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +13% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Sipapu averaged +13% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Sipapu sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +11%, '15-16 +13%, '23-24 +14%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +11%'15-16 +13%'23-24 +14%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Sipapu, ERA5 season snowfall median was 189 cm (74 in), about 7% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

189cm

10 El Niño winters · 7% above median

All-season median

177cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10189cm169cm – 211cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12155cm118cm – 182cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8173cm96cm – 211cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Sipapu

How much snow is Sipapu getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 2 cm (1 in) of snow at Sipapu over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Sipapu?
The full 14-day forecast for Sipapu — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Sipapu?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.