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Sierra at Tahoe ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Sierra at Tahoe Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 28, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 28

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 30

today

Past 24 Hours

3cm

Past 48 Hours

3cm

Past 10 Days

5cm

7-Day Forecast

14cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 10:06 PM•Weather at base: 2,024m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 28

Sierra at Tahoe is projected to open November 28, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 29 Mar–4 Apr.NovDec2Jan1Feb3MarAprOpens 28 NovCloses 12 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1February118cm avg · last season 26
  2. #2January118cm avg
  3. #3March102cm avg · last season 14.4

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 26
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 19.9
  3. #3 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 30.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:06 PM

12cm
Season
5cm
Past 10 days48H 3cm · 24H 3cm
1cm
Today
14cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
1
0
0
Seasontotal
3
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
1
8
5
—
0
—
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,361m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
3° / -3°
31 Sat
1° / -3°
1 Sun
1° / -8°
2 Mon
10° / -10°
3 Tue
4° / -3°
4 Wed
5° / -7°
5 Thu
8° / -5°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions🌧️⛅☁️🌧️🌧️☁️❄️⛅☀️🌤️☁️☁️☀️🌧️☁️☀️☀️☀️☁️☁️⛅
drizzlesome cloudscloudydrizzlelight drizzlecloudylight snowsome cloudsclearmostly clearcloudycloudyclearlight drizzlecloudyclearclearclearcloudycloudysome clouds
Mid-mountain2,361 mModeled
Temp°C2°4°1°1°2°0°-2°2°-2°-1°8°0°3°6°1°0°6°0°3°6°1°
Feels like°C-2°0°-3°-2°-2°-3°-6°-1°-7°-4°7°-5°-2°-1°-4°-5°3°-5°2°5°-3°
Snowcm0.40.10.11.32.15.50.40.13····0.10.3···0.10.20.3
Precipmm0.90.90.62.85.38.20.50.14.4····0.30.6···0.40.20.6
Windkm/h10158917734722417199453022
Summit2,698 mModeled
Temp°C-1°1°-1°-1°0°-2°-4°0°-4°-3°6°-3°1°4°-1°-2°4°-2°0°4°-1°
Feels like°C-5°-3°-6°-5°-5°-6°-9°-3°-9°-7°5°-7°-4°-4°-6°-7°1°-8°0°2°-5°
Snowcm0.80.2·1.93.96.60.50.13.8····0.20.4··0.10.40.20.4
Precipmm1.10.70.72.95.89.10.60.14.8····0.40.6···0.40.30.6
Windkm/h10158917734722417199453022
Base2,024 mModeled
Temp°C4°6°3°3°4°2°0°4°0°1°10°1°5°8°3°2°8°2°4°8°3°
Feels like°C0°2°-1°0°1°-1°-4°2°-4°-2°10°-3°0°1°-1°-2°6°-3°4°7°0°
Snowcm···0.10.51.80.4·2.8·····0.1····0.10.1
Precipmm0.70.90.52.75.38.20.60.14.2····0.30.6···0.40.30.6
Windkm/h10158917734722417199453022
Humidity%885995918498835088493068436269865893444768
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Sierra at Tahoe, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Sierra at Tahoe (sierra), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Sierra at Tahoe El Niño rank & forecast

Sierra at Tahoe ranks #102 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#102 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Sierra at Tahoe averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Sierra at Tahoe with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 +21%, '15-16 -4%, '23-24 +9%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 +21%'15-16 −4%'23-24 +9%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Sierra at Tahoe, ERA5 season snowfall median was 621 cm (244 in), about 6% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

621cm

10 El Niño winters · 6% above median

All-season median

586cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10621cm562cm – 719cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12599cm465cm – 692cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8525cm437cm – 595cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Sierra at Tahoe

How much snow is Sierra at Tahoe getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 14 cm (6 in) of snow at Sierra at Tahoe over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Sierra at Tahoe?
The full 14-day forecast for Sierra at Tahoe — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Sierra at Tahoe?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.