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Porters ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Oceania

Porters Snow Forecast

33

Solid · 2026 season average

Projected to open June 25, 2027 · average of 87 verified open days

Best months to book: July, August, June · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jun 25 — closed September 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 31

Past 24 Hours

6cm

Past 48 Hours

6cm

Past 10 Days

7cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

25

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

1

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 11:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,302m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
33

Solid

2026 season average

Porters is projected to open June 25, 2027. Last season it averaged 33.2 across 87 verified open days.

Best months to book: July, August, June. Best weeks: 3 Jul–9 Jul, 10 Jul–16 Jul, 24 Jul–30 Jul.3Jun1Jul2AugSepOpened 26 JunClosed 20 Sep

Best months to book

  1. #1July36cm avg · last season 36.1
  2. #2August29cm avg · last season 27.7
  3. #3June29cm avg · last season 20.6

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 3 Jul – 9 Jul · last season 45
  2. #2 10 Jul – 16 Jul · last season 36.1
  3. #3 24 Jul – 30 Jul · last season 35

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 6 Sep – 19 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:04 PM

193cm
Season
7cm
Past 10 days48H 6cm · 24H 6cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
0
1
Seasontotal
0
6
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,641m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
3° / -11°
1 Sun
5° / -7°
2 Mon
6° / 0°
3 Tue
5° / 2°
4 Wed
11° / 3°
5 Thu
11° / 4°
6 Fri
12° / 6°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions🌤️🌤️☀️🌤️☁️☀️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️☁️🌧️☁️⛅🌧️☁️☁️☁️☁️
mostly clearmostly clearclearmostly clearcloudyclearlight drizzlelight rainlight drizzlecloudydrizzlelight drizzlecloudylight drizzlecloudysome cloudslight drizzlecloudycloudycloudycloudy
Mid-mountain1,641 mModeled
Temp°C-3°5°-1°2°8°1°5°8°5°5°7°5°5°10°6°7°13°7°8°12°8°
Feels like°C-8°2°-6°-3°1°-5°0°4°1°3°4°3°5°10°4°5°9°5°6°9°7°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····0.21.23.73.22.84.24.31.00.51.00.10.1·0.20.31.0
Windkm/h22312221519201425511159151712161713
Summit1,980 mModeled
Temp°C-6°3°-3°0°5°-1°3°6°3°3°5°3°3°8°4°5°10°5°6°10°6°
Feels like°C-11°0°-8°-5°-1°-7°-3°1°-2°1°2°1°2°7°1°2°6°2°3°7°4°
Snowcm·····0.1··0.1···0.1·0.3······
Precipmm·····0.21.23.73.22.84.24.31.00.51.00.10.1·0.20.31.0
Windkm/h22312221519201425511159151712161713
Base1,302 mModeled
Temp°C-1°7°1°5°10°3°7°10°7°8°9°7°8°13°8°9°15°9°10°15°10°
Feels like°C-6°5°-3°0°4°-2°3°6°3°6°7°6°8°13°7°7°12°8°9°12°9°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····0.21.23.73.22.84.24.31.00.51.00.10.1·0.20.31.0
Windkm/h22312221519201425511159151712161713
Humidity%825685736382878689929292815983786480817083
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Porters, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Porters (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Porters El Niño rank & forecast

Porters ranks #201 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +1% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#201 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Porters averaged +1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -15%, '15-16 -7%, '23-24 +25%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −15%'15-16 −7%'23-24 +25%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+1%

Measured to date

+43%

Season total

193 cm

Vs predicted

+43%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Porters, ERA5 season snowfall median was 124 cm (49 in), about 11% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

124cm

5 El Niño winters · 11% below median

All-season median

139cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent5124cm121cm – 132cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4137cm112cm – 183cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21145cm111cm – 169cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Porters

How much snow is Porters getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Porters over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Porters?
The full 14-day forecast for Porters — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Porters?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.