Skip to main content
Penitentes ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Penitentes Snow Forecast

69

Superb · 2026 season average

Projected to open July 2027 · average of 58 verified open days

Best months to book: August, September, October · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jul 2027 — closed October 15

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 27

3d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

6cm

7-Day Forecast

2cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

21

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

4

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 10:06 PM•Weather at base: 2,579m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
69

Superb

2026 season average

Penitentes is projected to open July 2027. Last season it averaged 68.9 across 58 verified open days.

Best months to book: August, September, October. Best weeks: 26 Aug–1 Sep, 19 Aug–25 Aug, 16 Sep–22 Sep.1Aug2Sep3OctOpened 19 AugClosed 15 Oct

Best months to book

  1. #1August73cm avg · last season 68.5
  2. #2September43cm avg · last season 65.9
  3. #3October22cm avg · last season 75.4

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 26 Aug – 1 Sep · last season 75.1
  2. #2 19 Aug – 25 Aug · last season 62.1
  3. #3 16 Sep – 22 Sep · last season 72

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 24 Sep – 7 Oct. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:06 PM

809cm
Season
6cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
1cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
3
1
0
2
Seasontotal
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
0
0
1
—
0
0
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,887m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
3° / -6°
31 Sat
3° / -5°
1 Sun
3° / -7°
2 Mon
5° / -4°
3 Tue
3° / -5°
4 Wed
3° / -5°
5 Thu
7° / -4°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☀️🌤️☀️☀️🌤️☀️☁️☁️⛅☀️🌤️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️
clearclearclearclearmostly clearclearclearmostly clearclearcloudycloudysome cloudsclearmostly clearclearclearclearclearclearclearclear
Mid-mountain2,887 mModeled
Temp°C-2°5°-1°0°5°0°-2°3°-2°-1°5°-1°-3°3°-2°-2°3°-2°-2°4°-1°
Feels like°C-4°5°-4°-2°5°-4°-4°4°-5°-1°7°-3°-2°4°-4°-2°5°-4°0°8°-2°
Snowcm·····0.1········0.1·····0.2
Precipmm·0.10.1·0.40.5·····0.1·0.20.3·0.10.1·0.20.3
Windkm/h424334232313253345445
Summit3,194 mModeled
Temp°C-4°3°-3°-2°3°-2°-4°1°-4°-3°3°-3°-5°1°-4°-4°1°-4°-4°2°-3°
Feels like°C-6°2°-6°-5°2°-6°-6°2°-7°-3°4°-6°-4°2°-6°-5°2°-6°-2°6°-4°
Snowcm··0.1··0.2·····0.1·0.10.2··0.1·0.10.3
Precipmm·0.10.1·0.40.5·····0.1·0.20.3·0.10.1·0.20.3
Windkm/h424334232313253345445
Base2,579 mModeled
Temp°C0°7°1°2°7°2°0°5°0°1°7°1°-1°5°0°0°5°0°0°6°1°
Feels like°C-2°7°-2°0°7°-1°-2°6°-2°1°9°-1°0°6°-2°0°7°-2°2°10°0°
Snowcm····················0.1
Precipmm·0.10.1·0.40.5·····0.1·0.20.3·0.10.1·0.20.3
Windkm/h424334232313253345445
Humidity%486065555162333849273546364454294145263540
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Penitentes, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Penitentes (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Penitentes El Niño rank & forecast

Penitentes ranks #1 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +85% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#1 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +85% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Penitentes averaged +85% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Penitentes sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +82%, '15-16 +36%, '23-24 +135%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +82%'15-16 +36%'23-24 +135%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+85%

Measured to date

+175%

Season total

809 cm

Vs predicted

+91%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Penitentes, ERA5 season snowfall median was 413 cm (163 in), about 58% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

413cm

5 El Niño winters · 58% above median

All-season median

261cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent5413cm381cm – 527cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4197cm133cm – 256cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21234cm202cm – 326cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Penitentes

How much snow is Penitentes getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 2 cm (1 in) of snow at Penitentes over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Penitentes?
The full 14-day forecast for Penitentes — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Penitentes?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.