Skip to main content
Ōhau ski resort
Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Oceania

Ōhau Snow Forecast

39

Solid · 2026 season average

Projected to open June 26, 2027 · average of 100 verified open days

Best months to book: August, September, July · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jun 26 — closed October 4

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 31

today

Past 24 Hours

1cm

Past 48 Hours

2cm

Past 10 Days

9cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

27

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

6

2026 season

Updated: Oct 31, 1:01 AM•Weather at base: 1,425m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
39

Solid

2026 season average

Ōhau is projected to open June 26, 2027. Last season it averaged 38.5 across 100 verified open days.

Best months to book: August, September, July. Best weeks: 22 Aug–28 Aug, 1 Aug–7 Aug, 29 Aug–4 Sep.Jun3Jul1Aug2SepOctOpened 27 JunClosed 4 Oct

Best months to book

  1. #1August46cm avg · last season 41.5
  2. #2September54cm avg · last season 42.5
  3. #3July51cm avg · last season 34.8

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Aug – 28 Aug · last season 51.4
  2. #2 1 Aug – 7 Aug · last season 44.6
  3. #3 29 Aug – 4 Sep · last season 49.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 25 Aug – 7 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 31 at 1:01 AM

306cm
Season
9cm
Past 10 days48H 2cm · 24H 1cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
7
Seasontotal
2
1
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,614m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
7° / -8°
1 Sun
3° / -5°
2 Mon
9° / 2°
3 Tue
5° / 3°
4 Wed
9° / 2°
5 Thu
11° / 4°
6 Fri
12° / 5°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☁️🌧️⛅🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️🌧️☁️🌧️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️⛅🌧️
clearclearclearcloudylight drizzlesome cloudsrainlight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzledrizzlecloudydrizzlecloudylight drizzlecloudycloudylight drizzlelight drizzlesome cloudslight drizzle
Mid-mountain1,614 mModeled
Temp°C-3°6°0°1°5°1°6°8°6°6°8°5°5°9°6°7°12°7°8°12°8°
Feels like°C-7°4°-4°-5°-1°-4°2°5°2°3°3°3°4°7°4°5°9°5°7°10°7°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.20.416.36.93.90.53.84.92.41.02.5·0.10.40.60.63.1
Windkm/h465121813111610254310461447136
Summit1,803 mModeled
Temp°C-4°5°-2°0°4°0°4°7°4°5°7°4°4°8°4°6°10°6°6°10°6°
Feels like°C-9°3°-6°-7°-3°-6°0°4°1°1°2°1°3°5°2°4°7°4°5°8°5°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.20.416.36.93.90.53.84.92.41.02.5·0.10.40.60.63.1
Windkm/h465121813111610254310461447136
Base1,425 mModeled
Temp°C-1°7°1°2°6°2°7°10°7°7°9°7°6°11°7°8°13°8°9°13°9°
Feels like°C-6°5°-3°-4°0°-3°3°7°4°4°5°4°6°8°5°7°10°7°8°11°8°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.20.416.36.93.90.53.84.92.41.02.5·0.10.40.60.63.1
Windkm/h465121813111610254310461447136
Humidity%714368837591867784939595937491846289836584
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Ōhau, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Ōhau (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Ōhau El Niño rank & forecast

Ōhau ranks #307 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −7% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#307 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −7% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Ōhau averaged -7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -44%, '15-16 -19%, '23-24 +44%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −45%'15-16 −19%'23-24 +44%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−7%

Measured to date

+36%

Season total

306 cm

Vs predicted

+43%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Ōhau, ERA5 season snowfall median was 150 cm (59 in), about 18% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

150cm

5 El Niño winters · 18% below median

All-season median

184cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent5150cm148cm – 194cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4160cm145cm – 251cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21193cm163cm – 344cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Ōhau

How much snow is Ōhau getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Ōhau over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Ōhau?
The full 14-day forecast for Ōhau — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Ōhau?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.