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Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Asia

Projected to open December 7, 2026

Best months to book: February, March, January · last season + 30-yr record

Scroll for happiness

Projected to open Dec 7

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 29

1d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

10cm

7-Day Forecast

10cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 30, 11:00 PM•Weather at base: 280m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Dec 7

Niseko Village is projected to open December 7, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February51cm avg · last season 33
#2March45cm avg · last season 36.4
#3January64cm avg

Best weeks to book

#1 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 43.1
#2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 40.7
#3 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 33

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:00 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

17cm

Season

10cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

10cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Thu29

Fri30

14 daystotal

—

WedOct 21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

Wed28

TODAY31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Fri13

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (725m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	31 Sat 8° / -4°			1 Sun -1° / -6°			2 Mon 1° / -6°			3 Tue 1° / -7°			4 Wed -1° / -8°			5 Thu 4° / -9°			6 Fri 8° / -6°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu	13 Fri
Conditions	🌤️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	⛅	⛅	⛅	☁️	🌧️	☀️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌤️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️
	mostly clear	drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	some clouds	some clouds	some clouds	cloudy	light drizzle	clear	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	mostly clear	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light rain	drizzle	light rain	snow	light snow	drizzle	snow	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy
Mid-mountain725 mModeled
Temp°C	6°	6°	2°	0°	1°	-1°	0°	3°	-1°	0°	2°	-1°	1°	1°	-2°	2°	7°	1°	6°	4°	2°	-3°	-3°	-1°	0°	1°	1°	1°
Feels like°C	4°	3°	-2°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-2°	0°	-4°	-3°	-2°	-5°	-5°	-4°	-5°	-4°	1°	-4°	6°	4°	1°	-8°	-7°	-4°	-6°	-3°	-1°	2°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.6	0.1	·	2.1	0.9	0.1	2.3	0.5	·	3	·	·	·	·	·	1.2	7.6	5.8	8.7	3.5	0.2	0.4	0.2
Precipmm	0.2	2.2	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.9	0.1	·	3.2	1.5	0.3	3.4	0.8	·	4.5	·	0.7	4.6	3.8	2.6	6.8	11.2	8.3	13.0	5.1	0.3	1.0	0.6
Windkm/h	3	12	6	20	19	9	3	5	4	7	12	5	15	17	5	5	13	5	10	14	13	21	15	16	19	7	5	3
Summit1,170 mModeled
Temp°C	3°	3°	0°	-3°	-2°	-4°	-3°	0°	-4°	-3°	-1°	-4°	-2°	-2°	-5°	-1°	4°	-2°	3°	1°	0°	-6°	-6°	-4°	-3°	-2°	-2°	-1°
Feels like°C	0°	0°	-5°	-9°	-8°	-10°	-6°	-3°	-7°	-7°	-5°	-8°	-8°	-8°	-8°	-7°	-3°	-7°	3°	1°	-3°	-11°	-10°	-7°	-9°	-6°	-4°	-1°
Snowcm	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.6	0.1	·	2.3	1.1	0.2	2.3	0.5	·	3.9	·	·	·	·	0.5	1.5	9.1	6.8	9.9	3.8	0.2	0.6	0.4
Precipmm	0.2	2.2	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.9	0.1	·	3.2	1.5	0.3	3.4	0.8	·	4.5	·	0.7	4.6	3.8	2.6	6.8	11.2	8.3	13.0	5.1	0.3	1.0	0.6
Windkm/h	3	12	6	20	19	9	3	5	4	7	12	5	15	17	5	5	13	5	10	14	13	21	15	16	19	7	5	3
Base280 mModeled
Temp°C	9°	9°	5°	3°	4°	2°	3°	6°	2°	3°	5°	2°	3°	4°	1°	5°	9°	3°	9°	7°	5°	0°	0°	1°	3°	4°	4°	4°
Feels like°C	7°	7°	1°	-3°	-2°	-3°	1°	4°	-1°	0°	1°	-2°	-1°	-1°	-2°	0°	4°	0°	10°	8°	4°	-5°	-4°	-1°	-3°	0°	3°	5°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.1	·	1.5	0.2	·	0.8	0.1	·	0.4	·	·	·	·	·	0.4	7.5	5.5	6.4	3.1	0.1	0.3	·
Precipmm	0.2	2.2	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.9	0.1	·	3.2	1.5	0.3	3.4	0.8	·	4.5	·	0.7	4.6	3.8	2.6	6.8	11.2	8.3	13.0	5.1	0.3	1.0	0.6
Windkm/h	3	12	6	20	19	9	3	5	4	7	12	5	15	17	5	5	13	5	10	14	13	21	15	16	19	7	5	3
Humidity%	90	77	90	59	57	76	84	74	91	85	53	90	82	59	87	73	70	92	98	95	94	76	73	86	89	77	88	91
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	300	300	450	750	800	750	850
Sunhours																						5.6	8.7	3.5	1.4	7.2	7.5	2.8

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Niseko Village, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Niseko Village (japan), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Hokkaido region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Niseko Village El Niño rank & forecast

Niseko Village ranks Under review SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −15% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

Under reviewTier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −15% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

This resort carries no separate rank: its 30-year record is identical to niseko-grand-hirafu, which is the ranked entry for this measurement. At ~31km resolution the reanalysis cannot resolve them as different mountains, so publishing both would be publishing one number twice.

'97-98 −46%'15-16 −22%'23-24 +23%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Niseko Village, ERA5 season snowfall median was 242 cm (95 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

242cm

10 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

243cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	242cm	215cm – 286cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	243cm	218cm – 352cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	249cm	221cm – 314cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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