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Myrkdalen ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Europe

Myrkdalen Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 20, 2026

Best months to book: March, February, January · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 29

1d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

3cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 11:04 PM•Weather at base: 450m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 20

Myrkdalen is projected to open November 20, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, February, January. Best weeks: 23 Mar–29 Mar, 30 Mar–5 Apr, 6 Apr–12 Apr.NovDec3Jan2Feb1MarAprOpens 20 NovCloses 12 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1March110cm avg · last season 60.9
  2. #2February124cm avg
  3. #3January141cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 23 Mar – 29 Mar · last season 59.3
  2. #2 30 Mar – 5 Apr · last season 57
  3. #3 6 Apr – 12 Apr · last season 35.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:04 PM

35cm
Season
3cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
1
1
Seasontotal
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (755m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
3° / -1°
1 Sun
4° / -2°
2 Mon
1° / -4°
3 Tue
2° / -4°
4 Wed
1° / -3°
5 Thu
2° / -3°
6 Fri
1° / -4°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions☁️☁️☁️🌧️⛅☁️🌤️⛅🌤️☀️🌤️☀️⛅☁️☁️☁️⛅☁️🌤️☁️☁️
cloudycloudycloudylight drizzlesome cloudscloudymostly clearsome cloudsmostly clearclearmostly clearclearsome cloudscloudycloudycloudysome cloudscloudymostly clearcloudycloudy
Mid-mountain755 mModeled
Temp°C3°5°4°4°5°2°0°2°0°1°4°1°1°3°1°1°2°0°-1°1°-1°
Feels like°C0°3°0°1°3°-1°-2°0°-4°-4°0°-5°-3°0°-2°-1°0°-2°-3°0°-3°
Snowcm········0.1········0.1···
Precipmm·0.2·2.10.21.6··0.10.1···0.10.10.10.10.1···
Windkm/h321232313543111142232
Summit1,060 mModeled
Temp°C1°3°2°2°3°0°-2°0°-2°-1°2°-1°-1°1°-1°-1°1°-1°-3°-1°-2°
Feels like°C-2°0°-2°-1°0°-3°-4°-2°-6°-6°-2°-7°-5°-2°-5°-3°-2°-4°-6°-3°-6°
Snowcm········0.1·····0.10.1·0.1···
Precipmm·0.2·2.10.21.6··0.10.1···0.10.20.10.10.2···
Windkm/h321232313543111142232
Base450 mModeled
Temp°C5°7°5°6°7°4°2°4°2°3°5°2°3°5°2°3°5°2°1°3°1°
Feels like°C2°5°3°4°5°1°0°2°-2°-2°2°-3°0°2°0°2°3°1°-1°2°-1°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·0.2·1.80.21.5··0.10.1···0.10.10.10.10.1···
Windkm/h321232313543111142232
Humidity%938989969293918694968594888590949495969295
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Myrkdalen, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Myrkdalen (scandinavia), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Scandinavia region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Myrkdalen El Niño rank & forecast

Myrkdalen ranks #242 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#242 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Myrkdalen averaged -2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -11%, '15-16 +2%, '23-24 +4%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −11%'15-16 +2%'23-24 +4%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Myrkdalen, ERA5 season snowfall median was 780 cm (307 in), about 2% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

780cm

10 El Niño winters · 2% above median

All-season median

765cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10780cm669cm – 942cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12769cm686cm – 837cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8765cm583cm – 815cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Myrkdalen

How much snow is Myrkdalen getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Myrkdalen over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Myrkdalen?
The full 14-day forecast for Myrkdalen — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Myrkdalen?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.