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Author: SnowSure

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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Status unconfirmed

Best months to book: February, March, January · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Status unconfirmed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

8cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 30, 9:07 PM•Weather at base: 1,682m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Status unconfirmed

Mt Shasta Ski Park is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February128cm avg
#2March103cm avg
#3January126cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

No new snow has fallen in the past week.

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Forecast

8cm in the next 7 days.

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Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is 1% of the 5-year average of 22cm.

Status unconfirmed · Data updated Fri, Oct 30, 09:07 PM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 9:07 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

0cm

Season

0cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

8cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

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TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,990m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 4° / -6°			31 Sat 0° / -5°			1 Sun 4° / -7°			2 Mon 7° / -7°			3 Tue 1° / -7°			4 Wed 8° / -8°			5 Thu 10° / -4°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	⛅	⛅	☁️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌤️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☁️	⛅	☁️	☁️	☀️	☀️	🌧️
	some clouds	some clouds	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	mostly clear	clear	clear	mostly clear	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	mostly clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	clear	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	cloudy	clear	clear	heavy drizzle
Mid-mountain1,990 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	4°	0°	0°	1°	0°	-1°	3°	-1°	1°	7°	1°	2°	5°	1°	0°	6°	0°	2°	6°	1°	3°	5°	7°	5°	4°	3°	1°
Feels like°C	-5°	1°	-5°	-4°	-1°	-5°	-6°	1°	-6°	-4°	5°	-4°	-4°	-1°	-5°	-6°	6°	-6°	0°	6°	-3°	2°	3°	5°	5°	5°	3°	0°
Snowcm	0.3	·	0.5	2.1	0.4	3	0.1	·	1.2	·	·	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.5	·	0.5	0.4	0.1	1.2	0.8	·	·	0.2	2.3	3.4	1
Precipmm	0.8	0.1	0.5	3.4	2.5	4.4	0.1	0.2	1.5	·	·	·	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.8	0.5	1.0	1.2	1.2	1.9	1.0	·	0.6	3.5	25.4	13.0	3.0
Windkm/h	3	9	3	4	5	3	6	5	5	3	3	3	3	7	2	4	2	6	6	3	9	9	4	3	3	3	5	8
Summit2,297 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	2°	-2°	-1°	0°	-2°	-3°	1°	-3°	-1°	5°	-1°	0°	3°	-1°	-1°	4°	-1°	0°	4°	-1°	1°	3°	5°	3°	2°	1°	-1°
Feels like°C	-7°	-1°	-7°	-6°	-4°	-7°	-8°	-1°	-8°	-6°	2°	-6°	-6°	-3°	-7°	-8°	4°	-8°	-2°	4°	-5°	0°	1°	3°	3°	2°	1°	-2°
Snowcm	1	0.1	1	2.3	1.5	4.1	0.1	0.2	1.6	·	·	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.2	1.2	0.8	·	·	0.7	7.3	4.9	2.4
Precipmm	1.5	0.7	1.1	3.4	2.3	6.0	0.1	0.4	1.8	·	·	·	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.8	0.5	1.0	1.2	1.2	1.9	1.0	·	0.6	3.5	25.4	13.0	3.0
Windkm/h	3	9	3	4	5	3	6	5	5	3	3	3	3	7	2	4	2	6	6	3	9	9	4	3	3	3	5	8
Base1,682 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	6°	2°	2°	4°	2°	1°	5°	1°	3°	10°	3°	4°	7°	3°	2°	8°	2°	4°	9°	3°	5°	7°	9°	7°	6°	5°	3°
Feels like°C	-3°	3°	-3°	-2°	1°	-3°	-4°	3°	-4°	-1°	7°	-1°	-2°	1°	-3°	-4°	8°	-4°	3°	9°	-1°	4°	5°	7°	7°	7°	6°	3°
Snowcm	0.1	·	0.1	0.8	·	1	0.1	·	0.6	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.1	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	·	·
Precipmm	0.7	0.1	0.5	3.5	2.4	4.4	0.1	0.2	1.5	·	·	·	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.8	0.5	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.6	1.0	·	0.5	3.1	25.4	13.0	3.0
Windkm/h	3	9	3	4	5	3	6	5	5	3	3	3	3	7	2	4	2	6	6	3	9	9	4	3	3	3	5	8
Humidity%	76	44	70	90	80	89	91	50	87	57	30	65	64	62	72	77	41	81	50	27	60	33	38	31	26	38	41	59
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,550	2,800	3,200	2,800	2,650	2,300	2,000
Sunhours																						8.9	8.9	8.9	8.8	8.8	6	1.9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Mt Shasta Ski Park, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mt Shasta Ski Park (cascades), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Mt Shasta Ski Park El Niño rank & forecast

Mt Shasta Ski Park ranks #16 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +22% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#16 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +22% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt Shasta Ski Park averaged +22% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Mt Shasta Ski Park sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +30%, '15-16 -19%, '23-24 +55%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +30%'15-16 −19%'23-24 +55%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Mt Shasta Ski Park, ERA5 season snowfall median was 581 cm (229 in), about 6% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

581cm

10 El Niño winters · 6% above median

All-season median

549cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	581cm	508cm – 759cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	549cm	502cm – 666cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	500cm	348cm – 686cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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