Oceania
Limited · 2026 season average
Projected to open June 5, 2027 · average of 104 verified open days
Best months to book: August, July, September · last season + 30-yr record
Scroll for happiness
Projected to open Jun 5 — closed September 27
Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.
Last Snowfall
--
Past 24 Hours
0cm
Resort reportedPast 48 Hours
0cm
Past 10 Days
0cm
7-Day Forecast
0cm
Snow Depth
--
Powder Days
2
2026 season
Limited
2026 season average
Mt Baw Baw is projected to open June 5, 2027. Last season it averaged 13.3 across 104 verified open days.
Best months to book
Best weeks to book
Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 22 Jul – 4 Aug. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.
Updated Oct 30 at 10:05 PM
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
No measurement at mid height (1,507m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.
31 Sat 11° / 5° | 1 Sun 12° / 3° | 2 Mon 12° / 2° | 3 Tue 10° / 5° | 4 Wed 13° / 2° | 5 Thu 5° / -1° | 6 Fri 12° / -1° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 7 Sat | 8 Sun | 9 Mon | 10 Tue | 11 Wed | 12 Thu | 13 Fri | |
| Conditions | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ☀️ | 🌧️ | ☀️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☀️ | 🌧️ | ⛅ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | ⛅ | ⛅ | ☁️ | |||||||
| drizzle | heavy drizzle | light drizzle | cloudy | cloudy | cloudy | clear | light drizzle | clear | light drizzle | drizzle | light drizzle | clear | drizzle | some clouds | drizzle | light drizzle | cloudy | some clouds | some clouds | cloudy | ||||||||
| Mid-mountain1,507 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 10° | 10° | 8° | 5° | 10° | 5° | 7° | 9° | 5° | 7° | 8° | 6° | 7° | 10° | 4° | 1° | 5° | 1° | 4° | 8° | 2° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | 5° | 6° | 5° | 2° | 8° | 2° | 6° | 8° | 3° | 5° | 8° | 5° | 5° | 6° | 1° | -4° | -1° | -3° | 2° | 7° | 0° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.5 | · | 1.2 | · | · | 0.1 | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 0.3 | · | 0.1 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | · | 4.4 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | · | 2.8 | 4.0 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 23 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 7 | |||||||
| Summit1,564 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 10° | 9° | 7° | 5° | 10° | 4° | 7° | 9° | 5° | 6° | 8° | 6° | 7° | 10° | 3° | 1° | 5° | 1° | 4° | 8° | 2° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | 4° | 5° | 4° | 2° | 7° | 2° | 5° | 7° | 3° | 5° | 7° | 4° | 4° | 5° | 0° | -4° | -1° | -3° | 1° | 7° | -1° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.5 | · | 1.6 | · | · | 0.7 | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 0.3 | · | 0.1 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | · | 4.4 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | · | 2.8 | 4.0 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 23 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 7 | |||||||
| Base1,450 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 11° | 10° | 8° | 6° | 10° | 5° | 7° | 10° | 6° | 7° | 9° | 6° | 8° | 11° | 4° | 2° | 5° | 2° | 5° | 9° | 3° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | 5° | 6° | 5° | 3° | 8° | 3° | 6° | 8° | 4° | 6° | 8° | 5° | 5° | 6° | 1° | -3° | 0° | -3° | 2° | 8° | 0° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.3 | · | 0.7 | · | · | 0.1 | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 0.3 | · | 0.1 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | · | 4.4 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | · | 2.8 | 4.0 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 23 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 7 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 62 | 92 | 80 | 86 | 48 | 92 | 74 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 86 | 96 | 65 | 81 | 95 | 97 | 68 | 94 | 79 | 56 | 88 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| Sunhours | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.
Every model for Mt Baw Baw, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Mt Baw Baw (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →Australia & Tasmania region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Mt Baw Baw is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 5 past El Niño winters at Mt Baw Baw, ERA5 season snowfall median was 10 cm (4 in), about 12% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
10cm
5 El Niño winters · 12% below median
All-season median
11cm
Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 5 | 10cm | 10cm – 11cm | 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 17cm | 13cm – 25cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 12cm | 9cm – 46cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
