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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Europe

Projected to open Nov 29

Projected to open November 29, 2026

Best months to book: November, April, March · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Projected to open Nov 29

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 25

5d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

32cm

7-Day Forecast

5cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 30, 11:03 PM•Weather at base: 1,212m

SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book

Projected to open Nov 29

Monterosa Ski is projected to open November 29, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1November88cm avg
#2April74cm avg
#3March66cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:03 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

80cm

Season

32cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

5cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Thu29

Fri30

14 daystotal

—

WedOct 21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

Wed28

TODAY31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Fri13

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,244m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	31 Sat -3° / -16°			1 Sun -9° / -24°			2 Mon -6° / -25°			3 Tue -7° / -18°			4 Wed -8° / -20°			5 Thu -7° / -20°			6 Fri -5° / -16°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu	13 Fri
Conditions	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	❄️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	⛅	☀️	❄️	☁️	⛅	☁️	⛅	☁️	⛅	☁️	☁️	☁️	❄️	❄️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️
	clear	clear	clear	mostly clear	light snow	mostly clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	some clouds	clear	light snow	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light snow	snow	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	drizzle
Mid-mountain2,244 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	6°	0°	0°	-1°	-2°	-2°	2°	-3°	-1°	1°	-2°	-2°	-1°	-3°	-3°	-1°	-3°	-2°	0°	-3°	-2°	-2°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-1°	0°
Feels like°C	-3°	3°	-5°	-5°	-6°	-7°	-7°	-3°	-9°	-6°	-4°	-9°	-6°	-4°	-9°	-6°	-5°	-8°	-8°	-5°	-8°	-6°	-7°	-5°	-3°	-4°	-3°	-2°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	0.3	0.2	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	7.4	5.9	0.1	0.1	2.2	3.3
Precipmm	·	·	·	·	0.4	0.3	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.1	0.9	0.2	0.6	1.2	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.1	10.8	9.0	0.2	0.1	3.2	5.0
Windkm/h	2	5	2	5	7	3	2	5	2	3	6	2	1	5	2	2	3	2	2	4	2	4	5	2	3	2	3	2
Summit3,275 mModeled
Temp°C	-6°	-2°	-6°	-7°	-8°	-9°	-10°	-6°	-12°	-10°	-7°	-11°	-10°	-8°	-10°	-11°	-8°	-11°	-9°	-6°	-9°	-9°	-9°	-7°	-8°	-9°	-7°	-7°
Feels like°C	-15°	-9°	-18°	-17°	-14°	-21°	-19°	-11°	-22°	-19°	-12°	-20°	-21°	-12°	-19°	-21°	-12°	-19°	-17°	-9°	-15°	-13°	-15°	-10°	-12°	-13°	-9°	-9°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	0.4	0.2	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.6	1.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	9.8	6	0.1	0.1	1.5	2.4
Precipmm	·	·	·	·	0.4	0.2	·	·	·	·	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.2	0.6	1.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	10.2	6.8	0.1	0.1	1.1	2.8
Windkm/h	2	2	2	4	3	3	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	3	1	2	5	1	2	4	3	3	5	6	4	5	2	4
Base1,212 mModeled
Temp°C	7°	12°	6°	5°	5°	4°	4°	8°	2°	4°	7°	3°	3°	5°	2°	3°	4°	3°	3°	6°	2°	4°	4°	5°	6°	5°	6°	6°
Feels like°C	5°	11°	3°	2°	2°	0°	0°	4°	-1°	1°	4°	-1°	1°	4°	-1°	1°	3°	-1°	0°	3°	0°	2°	1°	3°	4°	4°	5°	6°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	·	·	0.1	0.7	0.2	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	1.0	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	·	·	0.2	0.1	13.7	8.8	0.2	·	3.4	5.2
Windkm/h	2	5	2	5	7	3	2	5	2	3	6	2	1	5	2	2	3	2	2	4	2	4	5	2	3	2	3	2
Humidity%	65	59	75	64	92	72	41	43	69	49	60	73	71	70	86	84	74	90	77	77	91	88	83	96	90	89	94	97
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1,900	1,750	2,150	2,050	2,000	2,050	2,200
Sunhours																						3	5.8	3.4	3	3	4.9	3.8

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Monterosa Ski, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Monterosa Ski (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Monterosa Ski El Niño rank & forecast

Monterosa Ski ranks #21 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +17% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#21 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +17% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Monterosa Ski averaged +17% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Monterosa Ski with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 -13%, '15-16 -15%, '23-24 +80%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 −13%'15-16 −15%'23-24 +80%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Monterosa Ski, ERA5 season snowfall median was 443 cm (174 in), about 5% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

443cm

10 El Niño winters · 5% below median

All-season median

468cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	443cm	363cm – 756cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	434cm	401cm – 573cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	549cm	506cm – 580cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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