Oceania
Limited · 2026 season average
Projected to open August 21, 2027 · average of 30 verified open days
Best months to book: August, September · last season + 30-yr record
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Projected to open Aug 21 — closed September 20
Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.
Last Snowfall
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Past 24 Hours
0cm
Past 48 Hours
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Past 10 Days
0cm
7-Day Forecast
0cm
Snow Depth
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Limited
2026 season average
Manganui is projected to open August 21, 2027. Last season it averaged 13.4 across 30 verified open days.
Best months to book
Best weeks to book
Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 28 Aug – 10 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.
Updated Oct 31 at 1:00 AM
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
No measurement at mid height (1,470m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.
31 Sat 5° / -2° | 1 Sun 4° / -3° | 2 Mon 5° / 0° | 3 Tue 8° / 3° | 4 Wed 9° / 3° | 5 Thu 10° / 4° | 6 Fri 9° / 5° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 7 Sat | 8 Sun | 9 Mon | 10 Tue | 11 Wed | 12 Thu | 13 Fri | |
| Conditions | 🌤️ | ☁️ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | ☁️ | ☀️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | ☀️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | |||||||
| mostly clear | cloudy | mostly clear | clear | cloudy | clear | light drizzle | light drizzle | cloudy | drizzle | light drizzle | drizzle | cloudy | light drizzle | clear | cloudy | light drizzle | light drizzle | heavy drizzle | light drizzle | light rain | ||||||||
| Mid-mountain1,470 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 2° | 6° | 1° | 1° | 6° | 0° | 5° | 6° | 4° | 6° | 9° | 6° | 7° | 10° | 6° | 7° | 11° | 7° | 8° | 9° | 7° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -2° | 3° | -4° | -1° | 0° | -3° | 0° | 1° | 0° | 2° | 6° | 2° | 4° | 9° | 4° | 4° | 8° | 4° | 5° | 6° | 5° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 5.8 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 12 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | |||||||
| Summit1,680 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 0° | 4° | -1° | 0° | 5° | -1° | 3° | 5° | 3° | 4° | 8° | 4° | 5° | 8° | 5° | 6° | 9° | 5° | 6° | 8° | 6° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -4° | 2° | -5° | -3° | -1° | -4° | -2° | 0° | -1° | 0° | 5° | 1° | 2° | 7° | 2° | 2° | 6° | 2° | 3° | 5° | 3° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 5.8 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 12 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | |||||||
| Base1,260 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 3° | 7° | 2° | 3° | 8° | 2° | 6° | 8° | 6° | 7° | 11° | 7° | 8° | 11° | 7° | 8° | 12° | 8° | 9° | 11° | 9° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -1° | 5° | -2° | 0° | 2° | -1° | 1° | 3° | 2° | 4° | 8° | 4° | 5° | 10° | 5° | 5° | 10° | 6° | 7° | 8° | 6° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 5.8 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 12 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 74 | 55 | 82 | 75 | 71 | 82 | 95 | 90 | 95 | 98 | 84 | 92 | 92 | 78 | 88 | 92 | 76 | 97 | 99 | 98 | 99 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| Sunhours | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.
Every model for Manganui, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Manganui (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →New Zealand region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Manganui is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 5 past El Niño winters at Manganui, ERA5 season snowfall median was 0 cm (0 in). This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
0cm
5 El Niño winters
All-season median
0cm
Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 5 | 0cm | 0cm – 0cm | 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 0cm | 0cm – 1cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 0cm | 0cm – 6cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
