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Mammoth Mountain ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Mammoth Mountain Snow Forecast

Opens November 13, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

Opens Nov 13 — closed June 7

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 30

today

Past 24 Hours

1cm

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

14cm

7-Day Forecast

25cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 10:00 PM•Weather at base: 2,424m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Opens Nov 13

Mammoth Mountain opens November 13, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March. Best weeks: 20 Mar–25 Mar, 27 Mar–2 Apr, 10 Apr–16 Apr.NovDec2Jan1Feb3MarAprMayOpens 13 Nov

Best months to book

  1. #1February88cm avg
  2. #2January87cm avg
  3. #3March73cm avg · last season 14.3

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 20 Mar – 25 Mar · last season 14
  2. #2 27 Mar – 2 Apr · last season 18.4
  3. #3 10 Apr – 16 Apr · last season 34.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:00 PM

12cm
Season
14cm
Past 10 days48H 1cm · 24H 1cm
2cm
Today
24cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
8
4
0
Seasontotal
1
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
2
10
13
—
0
—
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,897m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
0° / -7°
31 Sat
-2° / -8°
1 Sun
-4° / -10°
2 Mon
8° / -9°
3 Tue
4° / -9°
4 Wed
3° / -12°
5 Thu
4° / -6°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions🌤️⛅❄️☁️🌧️⛅❄️⛅☀️☀️☁️☁️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️⛅☁️☁️
mostly clearsome cloudslight snowcloudylight drizzlesome cloudslight snowsome cloudsclearclearcloudycloudyclearclearclearclearclearclearsome cloudscloudycloudy
Mid-mountain2,897 mModeled
Temp°C0°2°-1°-1°1°-1°-3°-1°-4°-3°6°-3°0°4°-2°-3°4°-3°0°3°-2°
Feels like°C-4°-2°-5°-5°-3°-6°-6°-4°-9°-8°4°-11°-6°0°-9°-8°1°-10°-2°2°-7°
Snowcm0.30.30.50.21.38.41.60.49.7·····0.3···0.10.10.1
Precipmm0.51.30.90.32.111.52.20.512.0·····0.2···0.1··
Windkm/h11179917946522310167233133
Summit3,369 mModeled
Temp°C-3°-1°-4°-4°-2°-4°-7°-4°-7°-5°3°-6°-2°1°-5°-6°1°-6°-3°1°-5°
Feels like°C-7°-6°-9°-9°-7°-10°-12°-8°-12°-7°2°-9°-7°-4°-10°-11°-1°-13°-3°-1°-8°
Snowcm0.310.50.21.58.62.40.413.1·····0.3···0.10.10.1
Precipmm0.51.50.90.32.211.62.70.613.1·····0.2···0.10.1·
Windkm/h8967116116114569178646223
Base2,424 mModeled
Temp°C3°6°2°2°5°1°0°3°-1°0°10°0°4°8°1°0°7°0°3°7°1°
Feels like°C-1°2°-2°-1°0°-3°-3°-1°-6°-5°8°-7°-2°3°-5°-5°4°-6°1°5°-3°
Snowcm··0.10.10.45.51.50.37.5·····0.2·····0.1
Precipmm0.40.80.60.31.810.12.00.611.1·····0.2······
Windkm/h11179917946522310167233133
Humidity%715480736584724284372265463766584672383957
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Mammoth Mountain, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mammoth Mountain (sierra), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Mammoth Mountain El Niño rank & forecast

Mammoth Mountain ranks #249 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −3% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#249 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −3% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mammoth Mountain averaged -3% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Mammoth Mountain has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -4%, '15-16 -32%, '23-24 +27%.

'97-98 −4%'15-16 −32%'23-24 +27%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Mammoth Mountain, ERA5 season snowfall median was 379 cm (149 in), about 5% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

379cm

10 El Niño winters · 5% above median

All-season median

360cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10379cm284cm – 452cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12354cm297cm – 524cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8306cm227cm – 519cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Mammoth Mountain

How much snow is Mammoth Mountain getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 25 cm (10 in) of snow at Mammoth Mountain over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Mammoth Mountain?
The full 14-day forecast for Mammoth Mountain — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Mammoth Mountain?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.