Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

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Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

North America

Projected to open Dec 11

Projected to open December 11, 2026

Best months to book: March, February, April · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Projected to open Dec 11

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 27

3d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

18cm

7-Day Forecast

7cm

Snow Depth

❄ Dense, settled

Updated: Oct 30, 9:06 PM•Weather at base: 1,951m

SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book

Projected to open Dec 11

Lost Trail Ski Area is projected to open December 11, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1March43cm avg
#2February42cm avg
#3April34cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 9:06 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

43cm

Season

14cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

7cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,225m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 5° / -4°			31 Sat 5° / -3°			1 Sun -1° / -2°			2 Mon 1° / -6°			3 Tue 7° / -4°			4 Wed 3° / -4°			5 Thu 4° / -5°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	☁️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☀️	☁️	☁️	🌤️	☁️	⛅	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	⛅	⛅	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️
	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	clear	cloudy	cloudy	mostly clear	cloudy	some clouds	clear	clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	some clouds	some clouds	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy
Mid-mountain2,225 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	4°	0°	0°	4°	1°	1°	1°	0°	-2°	2°	-2°	-2°	4°	-2°	-2°	3°	-2°	-1°	3°	-2°	-2°	-2°	-1°	2°	2°	2°	2°
Feels like°C	-5°	1°	-4°	-3°	3°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-4°	-5°	-2°	-5°	-5°	3°	-4°	-4°	0°	-4°	-4°	0°	-5°	-5°	-5°	-3°	-1°	0°	1°	2°
Snowcm	·	0.1	0.2	0.1	·	0.2	1.1	2.6	2.6	0.1	·	0.4	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	0.1	0.3	1.4	0.3	·	0.3	0.5	·	0.6
Precipmm	·	0.7	0.8	0.1	0.2	0.4	2.1	4.4	3.8	0.1	·	0.6	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.1	0.2	1.2	·	·	0.4	0.7	0.2	0.8
Windkm/h	10	4	6	6	3	6	3	7	9	6	2	7	11	4	6	3	7	2	9	7	5	7	7	12	13	12	14	14
Summit2,499 mModeled
Temp°C	-3°	2°	-2°	-1°	2°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-2°	-3°	0°	-3°	-4°	2°	-4°	-3°	2°	-3°	-3°	1°	-3°	-3°	-4°	-3°	0°	1°	1°	0°
Feels like°C	-7°	-1°	-6°	-5°	1°	-6°	-4°	-5°	-6°	-7°	-4°	-7°	-7°	2°	-6°	-6°	-2°	-6°	-6°	-2°	-7°	-6°	-6°	-5°	-3°	-2°	-1°	0°
Snowcm	·	0.1	0.5	0.1	·	0.2	1.4	3	2.6	0.1	·	0.5	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	0.2	0.4	1.7	0.3	·	0.4	0.6	·	0.6
Precipmm	·	0.7	0.8	0.1	0.2	0.3	2.2	4.4	3.8	0.1	·	0.6	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.1	0.2	1.3	·	·	0.4	0.7	0.2	0.8
Windkm/h	10	4	6	6	3	6	3	7	9	6	2	7	11	4	6	3	7	2	9	7	5	7	7	12	13	12	14	14
Base1,951 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	6°	1°	2°	6°	2°	2°	3°	2°	0°	4°	0°	0°	6°	0°	0°	5°	0°	0°	5°	0°	0°	-1°	1°	3°	4°	4°	3°
Feels like°C	-3°	3°	-2°	-1°	5°	-2°	0°	-1°	-2°	-3°	0°	-3°	-3°	5°	-2°	-2°	2°	-2°	-2°	2°	-3°	-3°	-3°	-2°	1°	1°	3°	4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	1.2	0.8	0.1	·	0.3	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	0.1	0.3	1.4	0.3	·	0.2	0.4	·	0.6
Precipmm	·	0.6	0.7	·	0.2	0.3	2.1	4.1	3.2	0.1	·	0.5	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.1	0.2	1.3	·	·	0.4	0.7	0.2	0.8
Windkm/h	10	4	6	6	3	6	3	7	9	6	2	7	11	4	6	3	7	2	9	7	5	7	7	12	13	12	14	14
Humidity%	60	67	72	94	63	92	98	99	98	90	59	85	64	35	65	72	57	70	72	56	77	65	67	40	35	47	44	40
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,050	1,850	2,100	2,450	2,650	2,650	2,500
Sunhours																						9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Lost Trail Ski Area, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Lost Trail Ski Area (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Pacific Northwest & BC region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Lost Trail Ski Area El Niño rank & forecast

Lost Trail Ski Area ranks #384 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −12% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#384 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −12% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Lost Trail Ski Area averaged -12% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -22%, '15-16 -17%, '23-24 +3%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −22%'15-16 −18%'23-24 +3%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Lost Trail Ski Area, ERA5 season snowfall median was 261 cm (103 in), about 14% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

261cm

10 El Niño winters · 14% below median

All-season median

302cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	261cm	231cm – 291cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	318cm	296cm – 345cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	326cm	263cm – 353cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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