Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Superb · 2026 season average

Projected to open June 2027 · average of 71 verified open days

Best months to book: August, September, October · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Jun 2027 — closed October 15

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 27

3d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

59cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 10:04 PM•Weather at base: 2,200m

SnowSure™ Score2026 season

Superb

2026 season average

Lagunillas is projected to open June 2027. Last season it averaged 70.1 across 71 verified open days.

Best months to book

#1August79cm avg · last season 70.2
#2September47cm avg · last season 65.3
#3October21cm avg · last season 79.7

Best weeks to book

#1 13 Aug – 19 Aug · last season 72.3
#2 20 Aug – 26 Aug · last season 71.3
#3 6 Aug – 12 Aug · last season 64

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 30 Sep – 13 Oct. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:04 PM

Freezing line

723cm

Season

59cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

0cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,311m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 7° / -2°			31 Sat 7° / -1°			1 Sun 5° / -3°			2 Mon 6° / -1°			3 Tue 5° / -4°			4 Wed 6° / -4°			5 Thu 7° / -5°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	🌤️	☀️	🌧️	🌤️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌤️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	🌧️
	clear	clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	mostly clear	clear	light drizzle	mostly clear	cloudy	drizzle	cloudy	mostly clear	mostly clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	clear	clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	light drizzle
Mid-mountain2,311 mModeled
Temp°C	7°	12°	7°	7°	9°	6°	4°	8°	4°	6°	9°	4°	4°	8°	4°	5°	9°	5°	6°	10°	5°	7°	7°	10°	10°	11°	11°	11°
Feels like°C	-2°	7°	-2°	0°	5°	-2°	-3°	3°	-3°	-1°	4°	-3°	-3°	4°	-4°	-3°	7°	-4°	-1°	7°	-3°	-2°	-1°	4°	4°	4°	5°	4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.1	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	0.5	0.6	·	4.9	2.4	0.1	2.7	1.5	·	2.5	2.4	0.7	2.1	1.2	0.1	1.3	0.6	0.1	1.2	2.2	3.3	0.1	0.2	3.6	·	0.9	1.8
Windkm/h	7	3	6	7	3	6	6	5	6	6	4	6	6	4	6	6	2	6	7	4	7	7	6	8	7	7	7	7
Summit2,422 mModeled
Temp°C	6°	10°	6°	6°	8°	5°	3°	7°	3°	5°	8°	4°	3°	7°	3°	4°	8°	4°	5°	9°	4°	6°	5°	8°	9°	11°	11°	10°
Feels like°C	-3°	7°	-2°	-1°	4°	-3°	-3°	2°	-4°	-2°	3°	-3°	-4°	3°	-5°	-3°	6°	-4°	-2°	6°	-4°	-2°	-1°	3°	3°	4°	4°	3°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	0.4	0.2	·	0.3	0.1	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.4	0.1	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	0.5	0.7	·	4.8	2.3	0.1	2.7	1.5	·	2.6	2.4	0.7	2.2	1.3	0.1	1.4	0.6	0.1	1.2	2.2	3.3	0.1	0.2	3.6	·	0.9	1.8
Windkm/h	7	3	6	7	3	6	6	5	6	6	4	6	6	4	6	6	2	6	7	4	7	7	6	8	7	7	7	7
Base2,200 mModeled
Temp°C	7°	12°	7°	8°	10°	7°	5°	9°	5°	6°	10°	5°	5°	9°	5°	6°	10°	5°	7°	11°	6°	8°	8°	11°	11°	12°	12°	11°
Feels like°C	-2°	8°	-1°	0°	6°	-1°	-2°	3°	-3°	0°	5°	-2°	-3°	5°	-3°	-2°	7°	-3°	0°	7°	-2°	-1°	0°	4°	5°	5°	5°	5°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	0.5	0.6	·	4.9	2.4	0.1	2.7	1.5	·	2.5	2.4	0.7	2.1	1.2	0.1	1.3	0.6	0.1	1.2	2.2	3.3	0.1	0.2	3.6	·	0.9	1.8
Windkm/h	7	3	6	7	3	6	6	5	6	6	4	6	6	4	6	6	2	6	7	4	7	7	6	8	7	7	7	7
Humidity%	44	39	44	43	53	56	52	69	65	37	64	57	57	73	65	41	42	48	36	54	45	73	54	33	40	31	50	60
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,200	3,700	4,100	3,800	4,200	4,650	4,550
Sunhours																						12	13.5	13.5	13.6	13.6	13.6	13.6

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Lagunillas, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Lagunillas (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Lagunillas El Niño rank & forecast

Lagunillas ranks #7 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +51% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#7 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +51% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Lagunillas averaged +51% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Lagunillas sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +87%, '15-16 +22%, '23-24 +44%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +87%'15-16 +22%'23-24 +44%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+51%

Measured to date

+132%

Season total

723 cm

Vs predicted

+81%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Lagunillas, ERA5 season snowfall median was 419 cm (165 in), about 35% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

419cm

5 El Niño winters · 35% above median

All-season median

310cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	5	419cm	353cm – 422cm	2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	285cm	213cm – 322cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	292cm	206cm – 336cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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