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La Thuile ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Europe

La Thuile Snow Forecast

Projected to open Nov 21

Projected to open November 21, 2026

Best months to book: March, January, February · 30-yr snow record

Projected to open Nov 21

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 25

5d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

30cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 10:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,450m
SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book
Projected to open Nov 21

La Thuile is projected to open November 21, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, January, February.NovDec2Jan3Feb1MarAprMay

Best months to book

  1. #1March80cm avg
  2. #2January97cm avg
  3. #3February75cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:04 PM

38cm
Season
30cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
1cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
2
5
1
10
6
7
Seasontotal
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
—
—
0
—
—
0
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,025m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
6° / -5°
31 Sat
5° / -7°
1 Sun
4° / -6°
2 Mon
2° / -9°
3 Tue
1° / -8°
4 Wed
-2° / -8°
5 Thu
-3° / -8°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️⛅🌤️☀️☀️⛅☀️🌤️☀️⛅⛅⛅⛅
clearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearsome cloudsmostly clearclearclearsome cloudsclearmostly clearclearsome cloudssome cloudssome cloudssome clouds
Mid-mountain2,025 mModeled
Temp°C2°6°1°2°7°1°3°4°-1°-1°4°-3°-1°3°-2°-2°1°-3°-2°0°-3°
Feels like°C-1°6°-2°-3°5°-4°-1°1°-4°-5°1°-6°-4°1°-7°-6°-3°-7°-6°-4°-6°
Snowcm···············0.10.10.10.10.10.1
Precipmm········0.1······0.10.10.10.10.10.2
Windkm/h111223353232112463554
Summit2,600 mModeled
Temp°C-1°2°-2°-2°3°-2°-1°0°-4°-4°0°-6°-4°-1°-5°-5°-3°-6°-6°-3°-6°
Feels like°C-5°1°-6°-7°1°-8°-5°-3°-8°-9°-3°-10°-8°-3°-11°-10°-7°-11°-10°-8°-10°
Snowcm········0.1······0.10.10.10.10.10.1
Precipmm········0.1······0.10.10.10.10.10.2
Windkm/h111223353232112463554
Base1,450 mModeled
Temp°C5°10°4°5°11°4°6°8°2°2°7°1°2°7°1°1°5°1°2°4°1°
Feels like°C4°10°2°2°9°1°3°5°0°-1°5°-2°0°5°-2°-2°2°-3°-2°0°-2°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm···············0.10.10.10.10.10.2
Windkm/h111223353232112463554
Humidity%624074643584462465502963483963775981857287
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for La Thuile, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For La Thuile (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

La Thuile El Niño rank & forecast

La Thuile ranks #38 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +14% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#38 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +14% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), La Thuile averaged +14% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book La Thuile with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 -22%, '15-16 -2%, '23-24 +66%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 −23%'15-16 −2%'23-24 +66%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at La Thuile, ERA5 season snowfall median was 513 cm (202 in), about 9% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

513cm

10 El Niño winters · 9% below median

All-season median

565cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10513cm473cm – 674cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12565cm529cm – 704cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8602cm520cm – 634cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about La Thuile

How much snow is La Thuile getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at La Thuile over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for La Thuile?
The full 14-day forecast for La Thuile — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for La Thuile?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.