Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Excellent

→stable

Scroll for happiness

Last Snowfall

Oct 27

3d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

28cm

7-Day Forecast

5cm

Snow Depth

157cm

Modeled

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 10:04 PM•Weather at base: 2,653m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Excellent

→stable

Exceptional season - 733cm already this season!

La Parva currently has a solid snow base of 157cm, with mainly clear conditions and a temperature of -1°C. The resort has received a total of 17cm of snow over the past week, contributing to a season total of 733cm, which is significantly higher than the 5-year average.

AI-generated summary

✓

Depth

157cm depth — excellent coverage.

↓

Recent

No new snow has fallen in the past 24 hours, but 17cm was recorded in the last week.

↓

Forecast

5cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is at 202% of the 5-year average.

Data updated Fri, Oct 30, 10:04 PM UTC

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:04 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

733cm

Season

28cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

5cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (3,114m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 1° / -7°			31 Sat 0° / -7°			1 Sun -2° / -9°			2 Mon -1° / -9°			3 Tue -2° / -10°			4 Wed -1° / -9°			5 Thu 2° / -9°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	☀️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	☁️	☁️	☁️	⛅	❄️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	🌤️	🌤️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	⛅
	clear	mostly clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	some clouds	light snow	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	mostly clear	mostly clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	clear	some clouds
Mid-mountain3,114 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	5°	1°	1°	3°	1°	-1°	3°	-1°	0°	3°	-1°	-1°	2°	-2°	-1°	3°	-1°	0°	4°	0°	2°	3°	6°	6°	7°	8°	8°
Feels like°C	-4°	4°	-5°	-4°	2°	-5°	-7°	0°	-7°	-5°	0°	-7°	-8°	-1°	-9°	-6°	2°	-7°	-4°	3°	-7°	-4°	-2°	3°	2°	4°	4°	2°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	·	0.5	0.5	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	0.4	·	0.1	0.2	·	·	0.2	·	·	0.5	·	·	·	1	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	0.7	0.6	·	2.1	1.4	·	0.7	0.4	·	0.9	1.1	0.1	1.0	0.5	·	0.8	0.7	·	0.7	1.2	0.2	·	0.2	3.7	·	0.7	2.2
Windkm/h	5	1	5	5	4	5	5	6	6	5	4	6	7	3	7	4	2	6	6	3	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6
Summit3,574 mModeled
Temp°C	-3°	2°	-3°	-2°	1°	-2°	-5°	-1°	-5°	-3°	0°	-4°	-5°	-2°	-5°	-4°	-1°	-4°	-3°	0°	-4°	-2°	0°	2°	1°	3°	5°	5°
Feels like°C	-8°	1°	-9°	-7°	-1°	-8°	-10°	-4°	-10°	-8°	-3°	-10°	-11°	-4°	-12°	-9°	-1°	-10°	-8°	0°	-10°	-7°	-5°	-1°	-1°	1°	0°	-1°
Snowcm	·	0.1	1.4	·	0.8	1.1	·	0.1	·	·	0.2	0.5	·	0.3	0.1	·	0.1	0.1	·	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.3	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	2.0	1.9	·	1.2	1.5	·	0.1	0.1	·	0.3	0.7	·	0.4	0.2	·	0.1	0.2	·	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	1.0	2.1	·	0.6	0.6
Windkm/h	5	1	5	5	4	5	5	6	6	5	4	6	7	3	7	4	2	6	6	3	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6
Base2,653 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	9°	4°	5°	7°	3°	2°	5°	2°	3°	6°	2°	2°	5°	1°	2°	6°	2°	4°	7°	3°	4°	4°	8°	7°	9°	9°	9°
Feels like°C	-5°	5°	-4°	-3°	3°	-4°	-5°	0°	-6°	-4°	1°	-5°	-6°	1°	-7°	-5°	4°	-6°	-4°	4°	-6°	-4°	-3°	1°	2°	2°	2°	2°
Snowcm	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.9	0.1	·	0.6	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	1.1	0.7	·	4.3	2.0	0.1	1.6	0.7	·	2.1	2.2	0.3	1.2	0.8	·	1.0	0.7	·	1.5	2.8	2.5	0.1	0.2	4.8	·	1.3	3.2
Windkm/h	7	3	6	7	3	6	6	5	6	6	4	6	6	4	6	6	2	6	7	4	7	7	6	8	7	7	7	7
Humidity%	48	52	59	54	59	58	50	55	52	31	54	50	74	71	65	37	40	40	29	53	50	75	53	29	35	30	54	50
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,250	3,400	3,800	3,850	4,200	4,750	4,750
Sunhours																						11.5	13.5	13.5	13.5	13.6	13.6	13.6

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for La Parva, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For La Parva (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

La Parva El Niño rank & forecast

La Parva ranks #4 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +60% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#4 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +60% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), La Parva averaged +60% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, La Parva sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +102%, '15-16 +29%, '23-24 +50%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +102%'15-16 +29%'23-24 +50%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+60%

Measured to date

+119%

Season total

733 cm

Vs predicted

+58%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at La Parva, ERA5 season snowfall median was 495 cm (195 in), about 54% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

495cm

5 El Niño winters · 54% above median

All-season median

322cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	5	495cm	443cm – 509cm	2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	280cm	230cm – 313cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	277cm	246cm – 357cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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