Skip to main content
Kirkwood ski resort
Epic PassView resorts
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Kirkwood Snow Forecast

Opens December 4, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

Opens Dec 4

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 30

1d ago

Past 24 Hours

4cm

Past 48 Hours

4cm

Past 10 Days

6cm

7-Day Forecast

28cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 31, 12:09 AM•Weather at base: 2,377m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Opens Dec 4

Kirkwood opens December 4, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 22 Mar–28 Mar.Dec2Jan1Feb3MarAprOpens 4 DecCloses 19 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1February120cm avg · last season 31.4
  2. #2January120cm avg
  3. #3March104cm avg · last season 16.9

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 31.4
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 21.3
  3. #3 22 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 19.7

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 31 at 12:09 AM

20cm
Season
6cm
Past 10 days48H 4cm · 24H 4cm
2cm
Today
26cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
1
0
1
Seasontotal
4
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
2
16
8
—
1
0
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,630m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
2° / -4°
31 Sat
0° / -4°
1 Sun
0° / -9°
2 Mon
9° / -11°
3 Tue
3° / -4°
4 Wed
4° / -8°
5 Thu
6° / -6°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions❄️⛅❄️❄️🌧️❄️❄️⛅☀️🌤️☁️☁️☀️☀️☁️☀️☀️☀️☁️☁️⛅
snowsome cloudssnowlight snowdrizzlesnowlight snowsome cloudsclearmostly clearcloudycloudyclearclearcloudyclearclearclearcloudycloudysome clouds
Mid-mountain2,630 mModeled
Temp°C0°2°-1°0°0°-1°-4°0°-4°-2°7°-2°2°5°-1°-1°5°-2°1°4°-1°
Feels like°C-4°-2°-5°-4°-4°-5°-8°-3°-8°-6°6°-7°-4°-3°-6°-7°1°-7°0°3°-5°
Snowcm10.20.22.84.48.60.40.25.4····0.20.5··0.10.40.30.3
Precipmm1.40.60.84.16.411.40.50.36.5····0.30.6·0.10.10.40.30.4
Windkm/h10158917734722417199453022
Summit2,883 mModeled
Temp°C-2°0°-2°-2°-1°-3°-5°-2°-5°-4°6°-4°0°3°-2°-3°3°-3°-1°2°-3°
Feels like°C-6°-4°-7°-6°-6°-7°-10°-4°-10°-8°4°-9°-6°-5°-7°-9°0°-9°-2°1°-7°
Snowcm1.10.50.12.94.58.80.40.35.8····0.20.6·0.10.10.50.30.3
Precipmm1.50.70.84.26.511.40.50.36.5····0.30.6·0.10.10.40.30.4
Windkm/h10158917734722417199453022
Base2,377 mModeled
Temp°C1°4°1°1°2°0°-2°2°-2°-1°9°-1°3°7°1°1°7°0°2°6°0°
Feels like°C-2°-1°-3°-2°-2°-3°-6°-1°-7°-4°7°-5°-2°-1°-4°-5°3°-5°2°5°-3°
Snowcm0.80.10.11.92.76.90.40.14.6····0.10.4··0.10.20.20.3
Precipmm1.30.50.83.45.910.10.50.15.8····0.30.6·0.10.10.40.30.4
Windkm/h10158917734722417199453022
Humidity%885995918498835088493068436269865893444768
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Kirkwood, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Kirkwood (sierra), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Kirkwood El Niño rank & forecast

Kirkwood ranks #94 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#94 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Kirkwood averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Kirkwood with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 +20%, '15-16 -5%, '23-24 +13%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 +20%'15-16 −5%'23-24 +13%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Kirkwood, ERA5 season snowfall median was 631 cm (248 in), about 5% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

631cm

10 El Niño winters · 5% above median

All-season median

601cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10631cm565cm – 729cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12601cm470cm – 710cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8540cm439cm – 635cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Kirkwood

How much snow is Kirkwood getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 28 cm (11 in) of snow at Kirkwood over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Kirkwood?
The full 14-day forecast for Kirkwood — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Kirkwood?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.