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Keystone ski resort
Epic PassView resorts
Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Keystone Snow Forecast

29

Fair

→stable

Last Snowfall

Oct 26

4d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

9cm

7-Day Forecast

10cm

Snow Depth

46cm

Resort reported❄ Packed powder
Updated: Oct 30, 10:00 PM•Weather at base: 2,830m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
29
Fair
→stable

Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.

As the ski season begins at Keystone, the current snowpack is developing with a total of 46cm reported. Recent light snow has added 4cm over the past week, and the forecast indicates an additional 10cm expected in the coming days. Conditions are partly cloudy with mild temperatures around 3°C.

AI-generated summary
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Depth

46cm depth — adequate for most conditions.

↓

Recent

There has been no new snow in the past 24 or 48 hours.

—

Forecast

10cm in the next 7 days.

—

Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is tracking below typical for this point in the season, with 16cm compared to the 5-year average of 20cm.

Data updated Fri, Oct 30, 10:00 PM UTC

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:00 PM

16cm
Season
6cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
10cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
0
4
2
0
Seasontotal
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
—
0
0
5
1
1
2
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (3,306m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
6° / -7°
31 Sat
4° / -6°
1 Sun
3° / -6°
2 Mon
-2° / -7°
3 Tue
1° / -9°
4 Wed
4° / -9°
5 Thu
-3° / -14°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☁️⛅☁️❄️🌤️☁️☁️☁️☁️❄️❄️❄️❄️☀️☀️☀️🌧️☀️❄️🌤️🌤️
cloudysome cloudscloudylight snowmostly clearcloudycloudycloudycloudylight snowlight snowlight snowlight snowclearclearclearlight drizzleclearsnowmostly clearmostly clear
Mid-mountain3,306 mModeled
Temp°C1°8°1°1°5°0°1°6°1°-1°-1°-1°-4°1°-4°-3°4°-5°-4°2°-5°
Feels like°C-3°4°-5°-2°2°-4°-3°2°-3°-4°-6°-5°-9°-2°-9°-5°1°-8°-7°-7°-9°
Snowcm···0.2··0.1·0.111.42.10.2·0.6·0.20.80.40.11.3
Precipmm···0.5··0.20.31.21.41.73.20.2·0.7·0.30.80.50.11.5
Windkm/h27641149951019101489242894
Summit3,782 mModeled
Temp°C-2°5°-2°-2°2°-3°-2°2°-2°-4°-4°-4°-7°-2°-7°-5°1°-8°-7°-2°-8°
Feels like°C-6°0°-9°-5°-2°-7°-7°-2°-7°-7°-9°-8°-12°-6°-12°-8°-2°-11°-10°-10°-12°
Snowcm···0.3··0.1·0.811.32.70.2·0.7·0.20.80.50.11.5
Precipmm···0.5··0.20.31.21.31.73.20.2·0.8·0.30.80.50.11.5
Windkm/h27641149951019101489242894
Base2,830 mModeled
Temp°C4°12°3°4°9°3°4°10°4°2°2°2°-1°5°-2°1°8°-2°0°5°-2°
Feels like°C1°7°-2°2°5°0°0°5°0°0°-2°-1°-5°1°-5°-1°4°-5°-3°-3°-5°
Snowcm·········0.20.40.90.1·0.5·0.10.70.3·1.1
Precipmm···0.3··0.10.31.11.31.33.10.2·0.8·0.30.80.50.11.5
Windkm/h27641149951019101489242894
Humidity%533073844884797088978697834580453477867893
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Keystone, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Keystone (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Keystone El Niño rank & forecast

Keystone ranks #208 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, 0% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#208 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: 0% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Keystone averaged +0% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Keystone has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -17%, '15-16 +2%, '23-24 +16%.

'97-98 −17%'15-16 +2%'23-24 +16%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Keystone, ERA5 season snowfall median was 301 cm (119 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

301cm

10 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

301cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10301cm293cm – 326cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12302cm257cm – 316cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8290cm255cm – 318cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Keystone

How much snow is Keystone getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 10 cm (4 in) of snow at Keystone over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Keystone?
The full 14-day forecast for Keystone — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Keystone?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.