El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Hanmer Springs El Niño rank & forecast
Hanmer Springs ranks #200 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +1% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.
Strong-event signal: +1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Hanmer Springs averaged +1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 +20%, '15-16 -8%, '23-24 -10%. A pattern, not a promise.
In-season scorecard
Predicted signal
+1%
Measured to date
+28%
Season total
163 cm
Vs predicted
+27%
Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.
