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Gudauri ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Europe

Gudauri Snow Forecast

Projected to open December 27, 2026

Best months to book: April, March, February · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Dec 27 — closed April 12

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 31

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

2cm

Past 10 Days

4cm

7-Day Forecast

6cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 2,200m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Dec 27

Gudauri is projected to open December 27, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: April, March, February. Best weeks: 10 Apr–12 Apr, 3 Apr–9 Apr, 27 Mar–2 Apr.DecJan3Feb2Mar1AprOpens 27 DecCloses 12 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1April72cm avg · last season 48.8
  2. #2March66cm avg · last season 40.4
  3. #3February39cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 10 Apr – 12 Apr · last season 63.3
  2. #2 3 Apr – 9 Apr · last season 46.1
  3. #3 27 Mar – 2 Apr · last season 40.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:02 PM

54cm
Season
4cm
Past 10 days48H 2cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
6cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
2
1
Seasontotal
1
0
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
0
—
0
5
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,738m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
2° / -6°
1 Sun
2° / -9°
2 Mon
1° / -8°
3 Tue
1° / -9°
4 Wed
1° / -6°
5 Thu
-3° / -7°
6 Fri
-7° / -13°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions🌤️🌤️🌧️☁️🌤️☁️☁️🌧️☁️🌤️☁️☁️⛅🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️🌤️⛅
mostly clearmostly clearlight drizzlecloudymostly clearcloudycloudylight drizzlecloudymostly clearcloudycloudysome cloudslight drizzlecloudydrizzledrizzlelight drizzlecloudymostly clearsome clouds
Mid-mountain2,738 mModeled
Temp°C1°5°1°1°5°0°0°4°0°0°4°0°0°4°0°-1°0°-1°-5°-4°-6°
Feels like°C-2°2°-3°-5°2°-6°-4°1°-6°-5°1°-5°-3°1°-3°-3°-3°-5°-12°-8°-11°
Snowcm·····0.1········0.51.91.81.72.42.40.6
Precipmm0.10.10.1·0.40.3·0.20.1····0.31.02.82.72.63.13.40.7
Windkm/h332533343343351341433
Summit3,276 mModeled
Temp°C-2°1°-2°-3°1°-3°-4°0°-4°-4°1°-4°-3°0°-4°-4°-4°-5°-9°-8°-9°
Feels like°C-6°-2°-7°-9°-2°-10°-8°-3°-10°-9°-3°-9°-7°-3°-7°-7°-7°-9°-15°-12°-15°
Snowcm··0.1·0.10.2·0.10.1····0.20.7222.43.13.20.7
Precipmm0.10.10.2·0.30.3·0.20.1··0.1·0.31.03.03.02.93.13.40.7
Windkm/h332533343343351341433
Base2,200 mModeled
Temp°C5°8°4°4°8°3°3°7°3°3°7°3°3°7°3°3°3°2°-2°0°-2°
Feels like°C2°6°1°-1°6°-2°0°5°-2°-2°5°-1°1°5°1°1°1°-1°-8°-5°-7°
Snowcm···············0.10.30.12.530.5
Precipmm0.10.10.3·0.30.4·0.10.1····0.40.82.71.51.93.84.40.7
Windkm/h332533343343351341433
Humidity%856493886490796892816590826789999490465169
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Gudauri, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Gudauri (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Caucasus & Eastern Turkey region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Gudauri El Niño rank & forecast

Gudauri ranks #182 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#182 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Gudauri averaged +2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Gudauri has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -34%, '15-16 -2%, '23-24 +43%.

'97-98 −34%'15-16 −2%'23-24 +43%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Gudauri, ERA5 season snowfall median was 354 cm (139 in), about 1% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

354cm

10 El Niño winters · 1% above median

All-season median

352cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10354cm305cm – 412cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12334cm268cm – 467cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8353cm284cm – 446cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Gudauri

How much snow is Gudauri getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 6 cm (2 in) of snow at Gudauri over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Gudauri?
The full 14-day forecast for Gudauri — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Gudauri?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.