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Grands Montets ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Europe

Grands Montets Snow Forecast

Projected to open Nov 28

Projected to open November 28, 2026

Best months to book: December, January, March · 30-yr snow record

Projected to open Nov 28

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 25

5d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

26cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 1,252m
SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book
Projected to open Nov 28

Grands Montets is projected to open November 28, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: December, January, March.Nov1Dec2JanFeb3MarAprMay

Best months to book

  1. #1December114cm avg
  2. #2January103cm avg
  3. #3March86cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:02 PM

61cm
Season
26cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
1cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
10
1
10
5
2
Seasontotal
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
—
0
—
0
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,264m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
-1° / -12°
1 Sun
-5° / -13°
2 Mon
-6° / -15°
3 Tue
-5° / -12°
4 Wed
-5° / -14°
5 Thu
-5° / -12°
6 Fri
-3° / -11°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️⛅☀️☀️❄️☀️🌤️☀️☀️🌤️⛅☁️🌤️☁️🌤️
clearclearclearclearclearclearclearsome cloudsclearclearlight snowclearmostly clearclearclearmostly clearsome cloudscloudymostly clearcloudymostly clear
Mid-mountain2,264 mModeled
Temp°C1°4°1°0°0°-2°-2°0°-4°-1°1°-2°-2°1°-3°-1°1°-3°-1°2°-2°
Feels like°C-4°1°-5°-4°-3°-7°-7°-4°-9°-5°-3°-8°-7°-3°-9°-7°-4°-9°-6°-1°-8°
Snowcm··········0.10.1········0.2
Precipmm··········0.10.1·······0.10.3
Windkm/h1323532522524551099737
Summit3,275 mModeled
Temp°C-5°-2°-6°-7°-7°-8°-9°-6°-10°-8°-6°-9°-8°-6°-9°-8°-6°-9°-8°-5°-9°
Feels like°C-11°-6°-12°-11°-10°-14°-13°-11°-16°-12°-10°-15°-14°-10°-16°-14°-11°-16°-13°-8°-15°
Snowcm··········0.1·········0.3
Precipmm··········0.1········0.10.3
Windkm/h1323532522524551099737
Base1,252 mModeled
Temp°C6°11°5°6°7°4°3°6°2°4°8°3°4°8°3°4°8°3°5°9°4°
Feels like°C4°9°3°3°4°1°0°3°-2°3°5°0°0°5°-2°0°3°-2°1°6°0°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm··········0.1······0.1·0.20.3
Windkm/h1323532522524551099737
Humidity%585578505864366770547567715377686178706680
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Grands Montets, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Grands Montets (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Grands Montets El Niño rank & forecast

Grands Montets ranks #43 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +13% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#43 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +13% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Grands Montets (Chamonix) averaged +13% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Grands Montets (Chamonix) with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 -23%, '15-16 -1%, '23-24 +62%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 −23%'15-16 −1%'23-24 +62%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Grands Montets, ERA5 season snowfall median was 511 cm (201 in), about 14% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

511cm

10 El Niño winters · 14% below median

All-season median

592cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10511cm484cm – 804cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12648cm525cm – 777cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8600cm578cm – 728cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Grands Montets

How much snow is Grands Montets getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Grands Montets over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Grands Montets?
The full 14-day forecast for Grands Montets — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Grands Montets?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.