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Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

North America

Opens November 20, 2026

Best months to book: February, April, March · last season + 30-yr record

Scroll for happiness

Opens Nov 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 28

2d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

14cm

7-Day Forecast

16cm

Snow Depth

❄ Packed powder

Updated: Oct 30, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 2,393m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Opens Nov 20

Grand Targhee Resort opens November 20, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February67cm avg · last season 48.3
#2April57cm avg · last season 39.3
#3March65cm avg · last season 32.4

Best weeks to book

#1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 48.3
#2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 40.7
#3 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 40

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:02 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

39cm

Season

31cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

16cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past snow measured by Grand Targhee SNOTEL at 2,822 m (9,260 ft), mid height.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 5° / -4°			31 Sat 2° / -3°			1 Sun 0° / -3°			2 Mon -2° / -7°			3 Tue 2° / -10°			4 Wed 2° / -7°			5 Thu -1° / -7°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	☁️	⛅	🌧️	⛅	🌧️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	⛅	☁️	☁️	☁️	☀️	☁️	⛅	⛅	☁️	❄️	🌤️	⛅	⛅	☁️	☀️	☁️
	cloudy	some clouds	light drizzle	some clouds	light drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	light snow	light snow	light snow	light snow	some clouds	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	clear	cloudy	some clouds	some clouds	cloudy	light snow	mostly clear	some clouds	some clouds	cloudy	clear	cloudy
Mid-mountain2,700 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	6°	1°	1°	3°	1°	1°	2°	0°	-2°	-1°	-2°	-5°	1°	-4°	-3°	1°	-3°	-3°	0°	-3°	-3°	-4°	-3°	0°	0°	0°	-1°
Feels like°C	-4°	1°	-4°	-2°	0°	-3°	-3°	-1°	-4°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-9°	-1°	-7°	-5°	-1°	-7°	-5°	-4°	-7°	-9°	-8°	-7°	-3°	-3°	-1°	0°
Snowcm	·	·	0.2	0.9	·	0.9	0.8	1.1	5.2	1.6	0.4	3.3	·	·	·	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.7	4.4	2.5	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.4	3.1
Precipmm	·	0.1	2.5	2.0	1.3	3.0	1.6	4.4	7.7	2.1	0.5	4.3	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.8	0.5	4.0	2.1	·	0.4	0.4	1.0	4.4
Windkm/h	11	13	8	4	8	5	7	1	7	8	9	5	4	2	4	1	6	4	4	7	3	6	5	4	4	6	6	7
Summit3,006 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	3°	-1°	-1°	1°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-2°	-4°	-3°	-4°	-7°	-1°	-6°	-5°	-1°	-5°	-5°	-2°	-6°	-5°	-7°	-5°	-2°	-2°	-2°	-3°
Feels like°C	-6°	-1°	-6°	-4°	-2°	-5°	-5°	-4°	-6°	-9°	-7°	-8°	-11°	-3°	-9°	-7°	-3°	-9°	-7°	-6°	-9°	-11°	-10°	-9°	-5°	-5°	-3°	-3°
Snowcm	·	·	1.3	1.3	0.9	2.2	1.2	2.9	5.2	1.6	0.4	3.6	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.7	4.3	2.5	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.6	3.3
Precipmm	·	0.1	2.2	1.9	1.6	3.3	1.8	4.4	7.7	2.1	0.5	4.4	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.8	0.5	4.1	2.1	·	0.4	0.4	1.0	4.4
Windkm/h	11	13	8	4	8	5	7	1	7	8	9	5	4	2	4	1	6	4	4	7	3	6	5	4	4	6	6	7
Base2,393 mModeled
Temp°C	3°	8°	3°	3°	5°	3°	3°	4°	2°	0°	1°	0°	-4°	3°	-2°	-1°	3°	-2°	-2°	2°	-2°	-1°	-2°	-1°	2°	2°	2°	1°
Feels like°C	-2°	4°	-1°	0°	2°	-1°	-1°	1°	-1°	-4°	-2°	-4°	-7°	2°	-5°	-3°	1°	-4°	-3°	-1°	-5°	-6°	-6°	-5°	-1°	-1°	1°	2°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.4	1.8	1.3	0.3	2.7	·	·	·	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.7	4.2	2.4	·	0.2	0.2	0.5	3.1
Precipmm	·	0.1	2.2	2.0	1.3	2.9	1.3	4.4	7.9	1.9	0.5	4.0	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.8	0.5	4.0	2.1	·	0.4	0.4	1.0	4.4
Windkm/h	11	13	8	4	8	5	7	1	7	8	9	5	4	2	4	1	6	4	4	7	3	6	5	4	4	6	6	7
Humidity%	69	50	82	90	78	92	91	95	94	97	82	93	77	49	79	49	60	75	82	71	86	80	70	46	28	52	47	39
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,250	2,000	2,150	2,700	2,800	2,800	2,550
Sunhours																						8.1	9	9	9	9	9	8.9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Grand Targhee Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Grand Targhee Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Northern Rockies & Canadian Rockies region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Grand Targhee Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Grand Targhee Resort ranks #316 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −8% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#316 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −8% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Grand Targhee Resort averaged -7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -13%, '15-16 -27%, '23-24 +17%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −13%'15-16 −27%'23-24 +17%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Grand Targhee Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 403 cm (159 in), about 12% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

403cm

10 El Niño winters · 12% below median

All-season median

456cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	403cm	354cm – 494cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	493cm	418cm – 518cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	482cm	399cm – 553cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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