El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Dinner Plain El Niño rank & forecast
Dinner Plain ranks #477 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −31% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.
Strong-event signal: −31% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Dinner Plain averaged -31% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -64%, '15-16 -45%, '23-24 +15%. A pattern, not a promise.
In-season scorecard
Predicted signal
−31%
Measured to date
−17%
Season total
62 cm
Vs predicted
+14%
Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.
