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Author: SnowSure

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Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Opens November 25, 2026

Best months to book: April, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

Scroll for happiness

Opens Nov 25

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 26

4d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

22cm

7-Day Forecast

17cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 30, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 2,856m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Opens Nov 25

Crested Butte opens November 25, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1April48cm avg · last season 46.6
#2February51cm avg · last season 41.1
#3March52cm avg · last season 27.1

Best weeks to book

#1 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 41.3
#2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 35.1
#3 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 41.1

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:02 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

46cm

Season

5cm

Past 10 days48H 3cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

17cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past snow measured by Butte SNOTEL at 3,106 m (10,190 ft), mid height.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 4° / -9°			31 Sat 1° / -6°			1 Sun 0° / -7°			2 Mon -2° / -6°			3 Tue 1° / -10°			4 Wed 1° / -10°			5 Thu -2° / -15°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	🌤️	⛅	⛅	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	⛅	🌤️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	☀️	☁️	⛅	⛅	🌤️	⛅	⛅	☀️	⛅	☀️	☀️
	mostly clear	some clouds	some clouds	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	drizzle	heavy drizzle	cloudy	snow	light snow	light rain	some clouds	mostly clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	clear	cloudy	some clouds	some clouds	mostly clear	some clouds	some clouds	clear	some clouds	clear	clear
Mid-mountain3,240 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	7°	1°	0°	3°	0°	0°	2°	0°	-1°	-1°	-2°	-4°	1°	-5°	-4°	1°	-5°	-4°	0°	-5°	-3°	-4°	-5°	-3°	-2°	-2°	-3°
Feels like°C	-5°	2°	-6°	-3°	-1°	-5°	-5°	-1°	-4°	-3°	-5°	-5°	-10°	-1°	-9°	-8°	-2°	-8°	-6°	-5°	-9°	-9°	-11°	-12°	-5°	-4°	-3°	-3°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.9	·	1.6	1.5	1.1	2	2.7	0.9	4.9	·	·	0.1	·	0.3	0.4	0.1	·	0.2	3.4	5.1	1	0.8	0.2	0.3	4.3
Precipmm	·	·	·	1.4	0.2	2.3	2.5	7.1	10.1	4.0	1.3	7.3	·	·	0.1	·	0.4	0.4	·	·	0.2	3.5	4.8	1.0	1.0	0.2	0.4	5.9
Windkm/h	1	4	3	5	8	4	9	6	4	7	14	10	10	4	6	1	6	2	4	3	4	8	7	8	4	3	3	2
Summit3,623 mModeled
Temp°C	-2°	5°	-2°	-2°	0°	-2°	-2°	0°	-2°	-4°	-4°	-4°	-7°	-1°	-7°	-6°	-1°	-8°	-7°	-2°	-8°	-6°	-6°	-8°	-5°	-4°	-5°	-5°
Feels like°C	-8°	-1°	-8°	-6°	-4°	-8°	-8°	-4°	-7°	-6°	-8°	-8°	-12°	-4°	-11°	-10°	-5°	-11°	-8°	-8°	-12°	-12°	-13°	-15°	-8°	-6°	-6°	-5°
Snowcm	·	·	·	1	0.1	1.5	1.8	4.8	7	3	1	6.3	·	·	0.1	·	0.3	0.5	0.1	·	0.2	3.6	5.6	1	0.9	0.3	0.3	4.4
Precipmm	·	·	·	1.5	0.2	2.3	2.6	7.2	10.4	4.3	1.4	7.6	·	·	0.1	·	0.4	0.5	·	·	0.2	3.5	4.9	1.0	1.0	0.2	0.4	5.9
Windkm/h	1	4	3	5	8	4	9	6	4	7	14	10	10	4	6	1	6	2	4	3	4	8	7	8	4	3	3	2
Base2,856 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	10°	3°	3°	6°	3°	2°	5°	2°	1°	1°	0°	-2°	4°	-3°	-2°	5°	-3°	-2°	3°	-3°	0°	-1°	-2°	-1°	1°	0°	-1°
Feels like°C	-1°	7°	-1°	0°	4°	-1°	-1°	3°	-1°	-1°	-3°	-2°	-5°	3°	-5°	-5°	3°	-7°	-3°	-1°	-6°	-4°	-6°	-7°	-4°	-2°	-1°	0°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.3	0.4	·	0.1	2.5	0.3	0.6	·	·	0.1	·	0.2	0.3	·	·	0.1	1.6	4.7	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.3	4.1
Precipmm	·	·	·	1.2	0.6	2.2	2.1	5.4	8.4	4.0	0.9	5.6	·	·	0.1	·	0.2	0.3	·	·	·	3.5	4.8	1.0	1.0	0.2	0.4	5.9
Windkm/h	4	8	2	1	2	1	2	6	3	6	15	6	4	3	3	3	5	5	3	5	5	5	6	8	3	4	3	3
Humidity%	72	48	75	97	79	89	95	97	97	93	86	96	83	54	77	49	58	72	89	83	93	79	74	56	34	36	39	37
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,850	2,650	2,650	2,800	3,050	2,950	2,700
Sunhours																						9	8.9	8.9	8.9	8.9	8.9	8.9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Crested Butte, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Crested Butte (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Crested Butte El Niño rank & forecast

Crested Butte ranks #179 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +3% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#179 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +3% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Crested Butte averaged +3% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -13%, '15-16 -11%, '23-24 +33%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −13%'15-16 −11%'23-24 +33%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Crested Butte, ERA5 season snowfall median was 306 cm (120 in), about 9% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

306cm

10 El Niño winters · 9% below median

All-season median

336cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	306cm	299cm – 351cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	354cm	297cm – 396cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	353cm	285cm – 389cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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