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Craigieburn ski resort
Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Oceania

Craigieburn Snow Forecast

28

Fair · 2026 season average

Projected to open July 17, 2027 · average of 72 verified open days

Best months to book: July, August, September · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jul 17 — closed September 27

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 31

Past 24 Hours

3cm

Past 48 Hours

3cm

Past 10 Days

4cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

17

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

3

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 1,310m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
28

Fair

2026 season average

Craigieburn is projected to open July 17, 2027. Last season it averaged 27.6 across 72 verified open days.

Best months to book: July, August, September. Best weeks: 25 Jul–31 Jul, 22 Aug–28 Aug, 18 Jul–24 Jul.1Jul2Aug3SepOpened 18 JulClosed 27 Sep

Best months to book

  1. #1July43cm avg · last season 26.1
  2. #2August38cm avg · last season 23.5
  3. #3September31cm avg · last season 33.1

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 25 Jul – 31 Jul · last season 28.3
  2. #2 22 Aug – 28 Aug · last season 30.9
  3. #3 18 Jul – 24 Jul · last season 23.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 27 Aug – 9 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:02 PM

174cm
Season
4cm
Past 10 days48H 3cm · 24H 3cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
0
1
Seasontotal
1
3
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,561m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
7° / -7°
1 Sun
3° / -5°
2 Mon
5° / 0°
3 Tue
8° / 2°
4 Wed
10° / 4°
5 Thu
9° / 4°
6 Fri
11° / 5°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions☁️🌤️☀️⛅☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️
cloudymostly clearclearsome cloudscloudydrizzleheavy drizzleraindrizzlelight drizzlelight drizzleheavy drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzle
Mid-mountain1,561 mModeled
Temp°C-2°6°0°2°7°1°5°7°5°7°9°6°6°10°6°7°12°7°8°11°8°
Feels like°C-5°4°-4°-3°-1°-5°-1°2°0°4°7°4°5°8°4°5°7°5°6°8°6°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.11.25.08.211.26.83.611.32.31.03.30.30.40.61.00.82.8
Windkm/h37512221322201579891589147131310
Summit1,811 mModeled
Temp°C-4°5°-2°0°5°-1°3°6°3°5°7°4°5°8°5°5°10°5°7°10°6°
Feels like°C-7°2°-6°-5°-3°-7°-3°0°-2°2°5°2°3°6°2°3°5°3°4°6°4°
Snowcm·····0.4···············
Precipmm····0.11.25.08.211.26.83.611.32.31.03.30.30.40.61.00.82.8
Windkm/h37512221322201579891589147131310
Base1,310 mModeled
Temp°C0°8°2°3°8°2°6°9°6°8°10°8°8°12°8°9°14°9°10°13°10°
Feels like°C-3°6°-2°-2°1°-3°1°4°2°6°9°6°7°10°6°7°9°7°8°10°8°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.11.25.08.211.26.83.611.32.31.03.30.30.40.61.00.82.8
Windkm/h37512221322201579891589147131310
Humidity%794181827089949495898094906790917792928393
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Craigieburn, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Craigieburn (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Craigieburn El Niño rank & forecast

Craigieburn ranks Under review SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −6% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

Under reviewTier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −6% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

This resort carries no separate rank: its 30-year record is identical to broken-river, which is the ranked entry for this measurement. At ~31km resolution the reanalysis cannot resolve them as different mountains, so publishing both would be publishing one number twice.

'97-98 −2%'15-16 −16%'23-24 −1%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−6%

Measured to date

+2%

Season total

174 cm

Vs predicted

+8%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Craigieburn, ERA5 season snowfall median was 179 cm (70 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

179cm

5 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

179cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent5179cm156cm – 180cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4187cm135cm – 262cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21186cm148cm – 220cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Craigieburn

How much snow is Craigieburn getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Craigieburn over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Craigieburn?
The full 14-day forecast for Craigieburn — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Craigieburn?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.