Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Solid · 2026 season average

Projected to open July 2027 · average of 87 verified open days

Best months to book: September, August, July · last season + 30-yr record

Scroll for happiness

Projected to open Jul 2027 — closed September 27

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

17cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 9:05 PM•Weather at base: 195m

SnowSure™ Score2026 season

Solid

2026 season average

Cerro Castor is projected to open July 2027. Last season it averaged 37.8 across 87 verified open days.

Best months to book

#1September26cm avg · last season 56
#2August33cm avg · last season 33.2
#3July32cm avg · last season 25.7

Best weeks to book

#1 21 Aug – 27 Aug · last season 49.7
#2 28 Aug – 3 Sep · last season 56.1
#3 4 Sep – 10 Sep · last season 59.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 1 Sep – 14 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 9:05 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

320cm

Season

0cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

1cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (567m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 5° / 0°			31 Sat 9° / -1°			1 Sun 6° / -3°			2 Mon 4° / -5°			3 Tue 6° / -2°			4 Wed 5° / -2°			5 Thu 4° / -4°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	🌧️	🌤️	⛅	🌤️	🌤️	🌧️	⛅	🌧️	☀️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	⛅	🌧️	⛅	❄️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	🌧️
	light drizzle	mostly clear	some clouds	mostly clear	mostly clear	light drizzle	some clouds	light drizzle	clear	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	some clouds	light drizzle	some clouds	light snow	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light snow	light drizzle
Mid-mountain567 mModeled
Temp°C	5°	7°	5°	5°	10°	5°	4°	7°	3°	2°	6°	3°	3°	7°	3°	3°	6°	3°	2°	5°	2°	6°	6°	6°	6°	6°	4°	7°
Feels like°C	1°	2°	2°	0°	5°	0°	0°	3°	-3°	-2°	1°	-2°	-2°	2°	-1°	-1°	2°	-2°	-3°	0°	-2°	0°	2°	3°	3°	-1°	-2°	4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	0.1	0.4	·	0.9	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	0.8	0.3	·
Precipmm	0.7	0.1	·	0.7	0.1	0.9	·	0.9	1.6	0.7	0.2	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.7	1.2	0.3	0.4	1.4	1.0	1.7	1.9	3.6	2.0	7.0	1.0
Windkm/h	13	21	5	15	24	13	9	11	12	8	20	6	19	23	12	13	14	9	9	15	7	24	19	21	20	21	20	9
Summit939 mModeled
Temp°C	3°	4°	3°	2°	7°	2°	2°	5°	0°	0°	3°	0°	1°	4°	1°	1°	4°	0°	0°	2°	0°	4°	4°	4°	3°	3°	2°	5°
Feels like°C	-1°	-1°	-1°	-3°	2°	-3°	-3°	0°	-5°	-5°	-2°	-5°	-4°	-1°	-4°	-4°	0°	-4°	-6°	-2°	-5°	-2°	0°	0°	0°	-4°	-4°	1°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.4	·	0.5	·	·	0.4	0.5	·	0.9	0.1	·	·	·	·	0.4	0.2	·	0.7	0.3	·	0.2	0.2	0.3	1.2	0.2
Precipmm	0.7	0.1	·	0.7	0.1	0.9	·	0.9	1.6	0.7	0.2	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.7	1.2	0.3	0.4	1.4	1.0	1.7	1.9	3.6	2.0	7.0	1.0
Windkm/h	13	21	5	15	24	13	9	11	12	8	20	6	19	23	12	13	14	9	9	15	7	24	19	21	20	21	20	9
Base195 mModeled
Temp°C	8°	9°	8°	7°	12°	7°	6°	10°	5°	4°	8°	5°	6°	9°	5°	6°	9°	5°	5°	7°	5°	9°	9°	8°	8°	8°	7°	10°
Feels like°C	4°	4°	5°	3°	8°	3°	3°	6°	0°	0°	3°	1°	1°	5°	2°	2°	5°	1°	0°	3°	1°	3°	5°	6°	6°	2°	1°	7°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.7	0.1	·	0.7	0.1	0.9	·	0.9	1.6	0.7	0.2	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.7	1.2	0.3	0.4	1.4	1.0	1.7	1.9	3.6	2.0	7.0	1.0
Windkm/h	13	21	5	15	24	13	9	11	12	8	20	6	19	23	12	13	14	9	9	15	7	24	19	21	20	21	20	9
Humidity%	86	59	86	83	48	75	74	63	88	83	68	93	79	67	80	74	61	88	84	63	89	79	77	83	73	69	72	78
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1,450	1,450	1,550	1,450	1,300	1,250	1,600
Sunhours																						7.4	11.9	11.6	14.5	15	14.1	11.3

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cerro Castor, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cerro Castor (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cerro Castor El Niño rank & forecast

Cerro Castor ranks #25 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +16% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#25 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +16% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cerro Castor averaged +16% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Cerro Castor sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -3%, '15-16 +20%, '23-24 +32%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −3%'15-16 +20%'23-24 +32%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+16%

Measured to date

+130%

Season total

320 cm

Vs predicted

+114%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Cerro Castor, ERA5 season snowfall median was 188 cm (74 in), about 27% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

188cm

5 El Niño winters · 27% above median

All-season median

148cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	5	188cm	152cm – 203cm	2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	113cm	105cm – 139cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	145cm	119cm – 192cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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