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Cerro Bayo ski resort
Tier B — Favored

South America

Cerro Bayo Snow Forecast

39

Solid · 2026 season average

Projected to open June 2027 · average of 81 verified open days

Best months to book: August, July, June · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jun 2027 — closed August 31

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

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🎿

Powder Days

35

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 1,050m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
39

Solid

2026 season average

Cerro Bayo is projected to open June 2027. Last season it averaged 38.5 across 81 verified open days.

Best months to book: August, July, June. Best weeks: 28 Aug–31 Aug, 31 Jul–6 Aug, 7 Aug–13 Aug.3Jun2Jul1AugOpened 12 JunClosed 31 Aug

Best months to book

  1. #1August138cm avg · last season 51
  2. #2July133cm avg · last season 35.9
  3. #3June128cm avg · last season 22.3

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 28 Aug – 31 Aug · last season 60.8
  2. #2 31 Jul – 6 Aug · last season 58
  3. #3 7 Aug – 13 Aug · last season 52.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 25 Jul – 7 Aug. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:02 PM

496cm
Season
0cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
1cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
Seasontotal
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
—
—
—
0
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,416m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
12° / 4°
31 Sat
9° / 1°
1 Sun
3° / -2°
2 Mon
7° / -4°
3 Tue
4° / -3°
4 Wed
7° / -3°
5 Thu
7° / -1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☁️🌧️⛅☁️⛅☁️🌧️🌧️🌤️☁️☀️⛅❄️⛅🌧️☁️🌤️🌧️☁️☁️🌧️
cloudylight drizzlesome cloudscloudysome cloudscloudylight drizzlelight drizzlemostly clearcloudyclearsome cloudslight snowsome cloudslight drizzlecloudymostly clearlight drizzlecloudycloudylight drizzle
Mid-mountain1,416 mModeled
Temp°C7°14°8°7°11°7°2°5°3°2°8°3°1°6°2°3°9°3°3°6°3°
Feels like°C5°9°6°4°7°3°-4°-1°-2°-2°6°-2°-3°1°-2°-2°5°-1°-1°5°1°
Snowcm···········0.10.3·0.5······
Precipmm·0.10.10.1·0.20.71.40.5··0.80.70.41.7··0.31.11.30.6
Windkm/h612111221111820158161111201391912646
Summit1,782 mModeled
Temp°C5°11°6°5°9°4°0°2°0°0°6°0°-1°3°0°0°7°1°1°4°0°
Feels like°C2°7°3°1°4°0°-6°-4°-5°-4°3°-4°-6°-2°-4°-5°3°-3°-3°2°-2°
Snowcm······0.3·0.2··0.50.5·0.9··0.10.60.50.4
Precipmm·0.10.10.1·0.20.71.40.5··0.80.70.41.7··0.31.11.30.6
Windkm/h612111221111820158161111201391912646
Base1,050 mModeled
Temp°C10°16°11°10°14°9°5°7°5°4°11°5°4°8°5°5°12°6°5°9°5°
Feels like°C8°12°9°7°9°6°-1°2°0°1°8°1°0°3°1°1°8°2°2°8°4°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·0.10.10.1·0.20.71.30.5··0.80.70.41.6··0.31.31.30.7
Windkm/h612111221111820158161111201391912646
Humidity%916191886087968485804684896092885289916786
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cerro Bayo, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cerro Bayo (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cerro Bayo El Niño rank & forecast

Cerro Bayo ranks #162 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +4% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#162 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +4% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cerro Bayo averaged +4% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -10%, '15-16 +7%, '23-24 +14%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −10%'15-16 +7%'23-24 +14%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+4%

Measured to date

−5%

Season total

496 cm

Vs predicted

−9%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Cerro Bayo, ERA5 season snowfall median was 633 cm (249 in), about 12% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

633cm

5 El Niño winters · 12% above median

All-season median

563cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent5633cm595cm – 673cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4541cm484cm – 583cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21556cm473cm – 606cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Cerro Bayo

How much snow is Cerro Bayo getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Cerro Bayo over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Cerro Bayo?
The full 14-day forecast for Cerro Bayo — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Cerro Bayo?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.