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Cardrona Alpine Resort ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier B — Favored

Oceania

Cardrona Alpine Resort Snow Forecast

29

Fair · 2026 season average

Projected to open June 25, 2027 · average of 115 verified open days

Best months to book: August, July, September · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Jun 25 — closed October 18

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 31

Past 24 Hours

2cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

2cm

Past 10 Days

2cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

10

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

1

2026 season

Updated: Oct 30, 9:05 PM•Weather at base: 1,260m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
29

Fair

2026 season average

Cardrona Alpine Resort is projected to open June 25, 2027. Last season it averaged 28.6 across 115 verified open days.

Best months to book: August, July, September. Best weeks: 28 Aug–3 Sep, 21 Aug–27 Aug, 3 Jul–9 Jul.Jun2Jul1Aug3SepOctOpened 26 JunClosed 18 Oct

Best months to book

  1. #1August29cm avg · last season 24.6
  2. #2July31cm avg · last season 19.7
  3. #3September31cm avg · last season 41.6

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 28 Aug – 3 Sep · last season 48.4
  2. #2 21 Aug – 27 Aug · last season 34.7
  3. #3 3 Jul – 9 Jul · last season 28.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 24 Aug – 6 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 9:05 PM

185cm
Season
3cm
Past 10 days48H 3cm · 24H 2cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
Seasontotal
1
2
Thu29
Fri30
14 daystotal
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
WedOct 21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
TODAY31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Fri13
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,585m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

31 Sat
4° / -8°
1 Sun
3° / -6°
2 Mon
10° / 0°
3 Tue
8° / -2°
4 Wed
8° / 2°
5 Thu
10° / 2°
6 Fri
11° / 3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu13 Fri
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️☀️☀️⛅🌧️⛅🌧️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️⛅🌧️
clearclearclearcloudylight drizzlelight drizzlelight rainclearclearsome cloudslight drizzlesome cloudsheavy drizzlelight drizzlecloudylight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlesome cloudsdrizzle
Mid-mountain1,585 mModeled
Temp°C-3°5°-1°1°7°2°6°11°5°3°9°4°4°10°6°6°13°7°7°12°7°
Feels like°C-8°2°-5°-4°0°-2°3°9°2°1°6°1°4°7°4°5°10°5°6°11°7°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.10.25.20.22.2·0.22.21.21.01.10.20.40.40.30.42.3
Windkm/h6654165412536339431255116
Summit1,909 mModeled
Temp°C-5°3°-3°-1°5°0°4°9°3°1°7°2°2°8°4°4°10°5°4°10°5°
Feels like°C-10°0°-7°-6°-2°-5°0°7°0°-1°4°-1°1°5°2°2°7°2°3°9°4°
Snowcm············0.1·0.1······
Precipmm····0.10.25.20.22.2·0.22.21.21.01.10.20.40.40.30.42.3
Windkm/h6654165412536339431255116
Base1,260 mModeled
Temp°C-1°7°2°3°9°4°8°13°8°5°11°6°7°12°8°9°15°9°9°14°9°
Feels like°C-5°4°-2°-2°2°0°5°11°5°3°9°4°6°10°7°7°12°7°9°14°9°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.10.25.20.22.2·0.22.21.21.01.10.20.40.40.30.42.3
Windkm/h6654165412536339431255116
Humidity%695467907590916177786989988292917092906885
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cardrona Alpine Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cardrona Alpine Resort (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cardrona Alpine Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Cardrona Alpine Resort ranks #127 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +7% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#127 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +7% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cardrona Alpine Resort averaged +7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -21%, '15-16 +11%, '23-24 +30%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −21%'15-16 +11%'23-24 +30%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+7%

Measured to date

+34%

Season total

185 cm

Vs predicted

+27%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort’s own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Cardrona Alpine Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 123 cm (48 in), about 14% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

123cm

5 El Niño winters · 14% below median

All-season median

142cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent5123cm117cm – 163cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4123cm104cm – 164cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21144cm100cm – 172cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Cardrona Alpine Resort

How much snow is Cardrona Alpine Resort getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Cardrona Alpine Resort over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Cardrona Alpine Resort?
The full 14-day forecast for Cardrona Alpine Resort — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Cardrona Alpine Resort?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.