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Cape Smokey ski resort
Indy PassBuy pass
Tier B — Favored

North America

Cape Smokey Snow Forecast

Projected to open Dec 6

Projected to open December 6, 2026

Best months to book: February, March, January · 30-yr snow record

Projected to open Dec 6

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

4cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 30, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 15m
SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book
Projected to open Dec 6

Cape Smokey is projected to open December 6, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarAprMay

Best months to book

  1. #1February63cm avg
  2. #2March51cm avg
  3. #3January64cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:02 PM

0cm
Season
4cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
2
2
Seasontotal
0
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
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—
—
—
—
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—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (168m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
11° / 6°
31 Sat
6° / 0°
1 Sun
4° / 0°
2 Mon
8° / 3°
3 Tue
3° / -2°
4 Wed
7° / -3°
5 Thu
12° / 1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌤️🌧️☁️☀️🌤️☀️☁️☁️☀️☁️☁️☁️
light drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzledrizzlelight drizzlecloudylight drizzlelight drizzlemostly clearlight drizzlecloudyclearmostly clearclearcloudycloudyclearcloudycloudycloudy
Mid-mountain168 mModeled
Temp°C11°12°10°5°4°4°3°4°3°7°9°6°2°3°2°1°5°1°6°11°8°
Feels like°C8°10°7°0°0°0°-2°-2°-2°2°3°1°-4°-3°-3°-3°3°-3°3°9°5°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm1.20.41.10.81.66.40.10.20.10.10.3·····0.40.10.30.10.4
Windkm/h2413152019151623182829201720157311151516
Summit320 mModeled
Temp°C10°11°9°4°3°3°2°3°2°6°8°5°1°2°1°0°4°0°5°10°7°
Feels like°C6°9°6°-1°-2°-1°-4°-3°-3°0°1°0°-5°-4°-4°-4°2°-5°1°7°3°
Snowcm····0.10.2···············
Precipmm1.20.41.10.81.66.40.10.20.10.10.3·····0.40.10.30.10.4
Windkm/h2413152019151623182829201720157311151516
Base15 mModeled
Temp°C12°13°11°6°5°5°4°5°4°8°10°7°4°4°3°2°7°2°8°12°9°
Feels like°C9°11°8°2°1°1°-1°-1°-1°3°4°2°-3°-2°-2°-1°4°-2°4°10°6°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm1.20.31.10.71.66.20.10.20.10.10.3·····0.30.10.20.10.4
Windkm/h2413152019151623182829201720157311151516
Humidity%949391959397717477807682625979833785938491
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cape Smokey, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cape Smokey (east coast), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Eastern Canada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Cape Smokey El Niño rank & forecast

Cape Smokey ranks #158 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +4% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#158 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +4% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cape Smokey averaged +4% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +4%, '15-16 -8%, '23-24 +17%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +4%'15-16 −9%'23-24 +17%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Cape Smokey, ERA5 season snowfall median was 261 cm (103 in), about 4% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

261cm

10 El Niño winters · 4% above median

All-season median

251cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10261cm228cm – 291cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12236cm199cm – 308cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8266cm247cm – 351cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Cape Smokey

How much snow is Cape Smokey getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Cape Smokey over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Cape Smokey?
The full 14-day forecast for Cape Smokey — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Cape Smokey?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.