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Blacktail Mountain Ski Area ski resort
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Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

North America

Blacktail Mountain Ski Area Snow Forecast

Projected to open Dec 26

Projected to open December 26, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · 30-yr snow record

Projected to open Dec 26 — closed March 28

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 30

today

Past 24 Hours

1cm

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

1cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 11:01 PM•Weather at base: 1,596m
SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book
Projected to open Dec 26

Blacktail Mountain Ski Area is projected to open December 26, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March.Dec2Jan1Feb3MarOpens 26 DecCloses 28 Mar

Best months to book

  1. #1February30cm avg
  2. #2January36cm avg
  3. #3March26cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:01 PM

8cm
Season
1cm
Past 10 days48H 1cm · 24H 1cm
0cm
Today
1cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
0
Seasontotal
0
1
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
—
—
1
—
—
—
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,811m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
2° / -6°
31 Sat
3° / -3°
1 Sun
2° / -2°
2 Mon
1° / -3°
3 Tue
1° / -4°
4 Wed
2° / -3°
5 Thu
3° / -3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions⛅⛅⛅⛅☁️⛅🌧️☁️☁️☁️⛅☀️☁️☁️☁️🌤️☀️☀️⛅⛅🌧️
some cloudssome cloudssome cloudssome cloudscloudysome cloudslight drizzlecloudycloudycloudysome cloudsclearcloudycloudycloudymostly clearclearclearsome cloudssome cloudslight drizzle
Mid-mountain1,811 mModeled
Temp°C-3°2°-1°-1°4°0°0°2°0°-2°2°-2°-3°2°-2°-2°3°-1°-1°3°0°
Feels like°C-7°-2°-4°-4°0°-3°-3°0°-3°-4°-2°-3°-5°-2°-4°-4°-1°-4°-3°0°-3°
Snowcm······0.10.20.1·········0.10.10.1
Precipmm··0.1···0.20.60.2·········0.20.10.2
Windkm/h874233423662232132462
Summit2,025 mModeled
Temp°C-4°1°-2°-3°3°-2°-2°1°-2°-4°1°-3°-4°0°-3°-3°2°-2°-2°1°-2°
Feels like°C-9°-4°-5°-5°-1°-4°-5°-1°-4°-6°-3°-5°-6°-4°-6°-6°-2°-5°-4°-2°-4°
Snowcm······0.10.30.1·········0.10.10.1
Precipmm··0.1···0.20.60.2·········0.20.10.2
Windkm/h874233423662232132462
Base1,596 mModeled
Temp°C-2°3°0°0°6°1°1°4°1°-1°3°0°-1°3°-1°-1°4°0°0°4°1°
Feels like°C-6°-1°-2°-2°2°-1°-2°2°-1°-3°0°-2°-3°0°-3°-3°1°-2°-1°1°-1°
Snowcm······0.10.20.1·········0.1·0.1
Precipmm··0.1···0.20.60.1·········0.20.10.2
Windkm/h874233423662232132462
Humidity%886582907081826881917685958189877182837284
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Blacktail Mountain Ski Area, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Blacktail Mountain Ski Area (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Pacific Northwest & BC region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Blacktail Mountain Ski Area El Niño rank & forecast

Blacktail Mountain Ski Area ranks #453 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −21% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#453 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −21% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Blacktail Mountain Ski Area averaged -21% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -35%, '15-16 -31%, '23-24 +4%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −35%'15-16 −31%'23-24 +4%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Blacktail Mountain Ski Area, ERA5 season snowfall median was 146 cm (57 in), about 18% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

146cm

10 El Niño winters · 18% below median

All-season median

179cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10146cm131cm – 172cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12193cm173cm – 208cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8188cm177cm – 208cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Blacktail Mountain Ski Area

How much snow is Blacktail Mountain Ski Area getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Blacktail Mountain Ski Area over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Blacktail Mountain Ski Area?
The full 14-day forecast for Blacktail Mountain Ski Area — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Blacktail Mountain Ski Area?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.