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Big Sky Resort ski resort
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Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

North America

Big Sky Resort Snow Forecast

Opens November 25, 2026

Best months to book: April, March, February · last season + 30-yr record

Opens Nov 25

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 27

4d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

14cm

7-Day Forecast

12cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 31, 12:00 AM•Weather at base: 2,073m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Opens Nov 25

Big Sky Resort opens November 25, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: April, March, February. Best weeks: 29 Mar–4 Apr, 5 Apr–11 Apr, 1 Mar–7 Mar.NovDecJan3Feb2Mar1AprOpens 25 NovCloses 12 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1April55cm avg · last season 33
  2. #2March43cm avg · last season 28.9
  3. #3February37cm avg · last season 28.9

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 37
  2. #2 5 Apr – 11 Apr · last season 29
  3. #3 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 31.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 31 at 12:00 AM

49cm
Season
13cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
12cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
3
10
Seasontotal
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
0
1
4
5
—
0
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past snow measured by Lone Mountain SNOTEL at 2,688 m (8,820 ft), mid height.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
0° / -8°
31 Sat
-1° / -7°
1 Sun
-2° / -7°
2 Mon
-6° / -15°
3 Tue
-1° / -14°
4 Wed
-4° / -11°
5 Thu
-3° / -11°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️🌧️❄️❄️🌧️❄️🌤️☀️☁️❄️❄️☁️☀️☀️☀️
cloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudylight drizzleheavy snowlight snowlight drizzlesnowmostly clearclearcloudylight snowlight snowcloudyclearclearclear
Mid-mountain2,739 mModeled
Temp°C-1°4°-1°0°2°0°0°1°-1°-3°-2°-4°-5°2°-5°-3°1°-4°-3°1°-4°
Feels like°C-5°0°-5°-3°-1°-4°-4°-2°-5°-8°-6°-9°-9°-2°-9°-7°-5°-8°-6°-4°-9°
Snowcm··0.10.30.10.70.414.110.22.8···0.20.1·0.10.50.3
Precipmm··0.20.51.01.10.62.36.11.20.33.2···0.30.1··0.40.2
Windkm/h6882349271085443242453
Summit3,404 mModeled
Temp°C-6°-1°-5°-5°-2°-5°-5°-3°-5°-8°-6°-8°-10°-2°-9°-8°-4°-8°-7°-4°-8°
Feels like°C-10°-5°-10°-8°-6°-9°-9°-7°-10°-13°-11°-14°-14°-6°-14°-11°-9°-13°-11°-9°-14°
Snowcm··0.20.30.60.80.41.551.10.23.2···0.30.1·0.10.50.3
Precipmm··0.20.51.01.10.62.36.11.20.33.2···0.30.1··0.40.2
Windkm/h6882349271085443242453
Base2,073 mModeled
Temp°C2°8°3°4°7°4°4°5°3°1°3°0°-1°7°-1°0°5°0°1°5°0°
Feels like°C0°5°0°2°4°1°1°3°0°-3°-1°-4°-4°3°-4°-2°0°-3°-1°1°-4°
Snowcm········0.10.8·1.4···0.1··0.10.20.1
Precipmm··0.10.31.51.10.42.25.51.20.33.1···0.30.1··0.40.2
Windkm/h6882349271085443242453
Humidity%825980888191909297978396614967818072677381
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Big Sky Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Big Sky Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Northern Rockies & Canadian Rockies region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Big Sky Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Big Sky Resort ranks #283 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −5% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#283 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −5% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Big Sky averaged -5% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Not a warning — a scheduling note. El Niño winters here tend to start slower and reward the late-winter core, when the base peaks and the El Niño headlines have pushed the crowds elsewhere. Aim February–March for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -20%, '15-16 -24%, '23-24 +28%.

'97-98 −20%'15-16 −24%'23-24 +28%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Big Sky Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 277 cm (109 in), about 10% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

277cm

10 El Niño winters · 10% below median

All-season median

306cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10277cm259cm – 386cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12330cm271cm – 373cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8323cm254cm – 399cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Big Sky Resort

How much snow is Big Sky Resort getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 12 cm (5 in) of snow at Big Sky Resort over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Big Sky Resort?
The full 14-day forecast for Big Sky Resort — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Big Sky Resort?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.