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Author: SnowSure

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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Projected to open November 27, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Nov 27

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 30

today

Past 24 Hours

3cm

Past 48 Hours

3cm

Past 10 Days

5cm

7-Day Forecast

26cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 30, 11:01 PM•Weather at base: 2,073m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Nov 27

Bear Valley is projected to open November 27, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February121cm avg · last season 27.1
#2January122cm avg
#3March111cm avg · last season 15.4

Best weeks to book

#1 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 21.9
#2 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 27.1
#3 22 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 14.2

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 11:01 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

14cm

Season

5cm

Past 10 days48H 3cm · 24H 3cm

2cm

Today

25cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,347m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 3° / -2°			31 Sat 0° / -3°			1 Sun 2° / -7°			2 Mon 10° / -8°			3 Tue 5° / -3°			4 Wed 7° / -10°			5 Thu 9° / -6°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	❄️	☁️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☁️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	❄️	☀️	☀️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌤️	☁️	☁️	⛅	☁️	🌤️	🌧️
	heavy snow	cloudy	snow	snow	snow	snow	light snow	clear	clear	clear	cloudy	mostly clear	clear	clear	light snow	clear	clear	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	mostly clear	cloudy	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	mostly clear	light drizzle
Mid-mountain2,347 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	3°	1°	1°	2°	0°	-1°	2°	-1°	1°	9°	0°	3°	7°	1°	0°	7°	0°	2°	7°	0°	3°	5°	7°	7°	5°	4°	1°
Feels like°C	-2°	-1°	-3°	-3°	-2°	-3°	-6°	-1°	-7°	-5°	7°	-5°	-3°	0°	-3°	-6°	4°	-7°	1°	6°	-5°	1°	4°	5°	6°	6°	5°	1°
Snowcm	1.5	0.1	0.3	2.4	2.9	10.7	1.2	0.2	6.2	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.7	·	·	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.2	·	0.1	0.2	10.7	21.2	0.7
Precipmm	2.8	1.5	1.3	4.7	8.1	16.1	1.7	0.6	9.0	·	·	·	·	0.3	1.0	·	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.7	0.3	·	0.2	1.0	18.2	43.5	1.7
Windkm/h	8	11	5	6	8	4	1	3	9	9	3	8	7	15	4	10	5	8	1	2	7	9	8	4	8	4	8	19
Summit2,621 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	1°	-1°	0°	0°	-1°	-3°	0°	-3°	-1°	7°	-1°	1°	5°	-1°	-2°	5°	-2°	0°	5°	-2°	1°	3°	5°	5°	4°	2°	-1°
Feels like°C	-4°	-3°	-5°	-5°	-4°	-5°	-8°	-3°	-9°	-7°	5°	-7°	-5°	-2°	-5°	-8°	3°	-9°	-1°	4°	-7°	-1°	2°	3°	4°	4°	3°	-1°
Snowcm	1.9	0.1	0.3	3.5	5.4	10.7	1.2	0.4	6.4	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.7	·	·	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.5	0.3	·	0.1	0.3	11.7	22.1	1
Precipmm	2.9	1.1	1.2	5.2	8.0	15.9	1.7	0.6	9.1	·	·	·	·	0.3	1.0	·	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.7	0.3	·	0.2	1.0	18.2	43.5	1.7
Windkm/h	8	11	5	6	8	4	1	3	9	9	3	8	7	15	4	10	5	8	1	2	7	9	8	4	8	4	8	19
Base2,073 mModeled
Temp°C	3°	5°	3°	3°	3°	2°	0°	4°	0°	2°	10°	2°	4°	8°	3°	2°	8°	2°	4°	8°	2°	5°	6°	9°	8°	7°	5°	3°
Feels like°C	0°	1°	-1°	-1°	0°	-1°	-4°	1°	-5°	-3°	9°	-3°	-1°	2°	-2°	-4°	6°	-5°	3°	8°	-3°	3°	6°	7°	8°	8°	7°	3°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	0.1	3.3	0.9	·	6	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.2	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.2	·	·	·	0.2	0.4	5.7	·
Precipmm	2.5	1.0	1.2	4.2	7.8	14.8	1.6	0.4	8.9	·	·	·	·	0.3	0.9	·	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.7	0.3	·	0.2	0.8	18.2	43.5	1.7
Windkm/h	8	11	5	6	8	4	1	3	9	9	3	8	7	15	4	10	5	8	1	2	7	9	8	4	8	4	8	19
Humidity%	89	69	98	96	93	99	82	53	88	45	32	60	45	62	69	78	47	91	50	43	77	40	47	54	42	38	32	58
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,900	3,150	3,400	3,450	3,100	2,850	2,450
Sunhours																						8.8	6	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.6

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Bear Valley, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Bear Valley (sierra), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Bear Valley El Niño rank & forecast

Bear Valley ranks #78 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +10% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#78 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +10% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Bear Valley averaged +10% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Bear Valley sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +16%, '15-16 -11%, '23-24 +24%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +16%'15-16 −11%'23-24 +24%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Bear Valley, ERA5 season snowfall median was 666 cm (262 in), about 15% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

666cm

10 El Niño winters · 15% above median

All-season median

581cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	666cm	514cm – 734cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	573cm	471cm – 664cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	503cm	413cm – 629cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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