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Arosa Lenzerheide ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Europe

Arosa Lenzerheide Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 7, 2026

Best months to book: March, April, February · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 7

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 25

5d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

16cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 30, 10:02 PM•Weather at base: 1,229m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 7

Arosa Lenzerheide is projected to open November 7, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, April, February. Best weeks: 22 Mar–28 Mar, 15 Mar–21 Mar, 29 Mar–4 Apr.NovDecJan3Feb1Mar2AprOpens 7 NovCloses 11 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1March60cm avg · last season 32.6
  2. #2April59cm avg · last season 24.6
  3. #3February51cm avg · last season 29.7

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 41
  2. #2 15 Mar – 21 Mar · last season 40.4
  3. #3 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 41.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:02 PM

19cm
Season
16cm
Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm
0cm
Today
0cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
8
0
2
2
4
Seasontotal
Wed28
Thu29
14 daystotal
—
—
0
—
0
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
TueOct 20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
TODAY30
Sat31
SunNov 1
Mon2
Tue3
Wed4
Thu5
Fri6
Sat7
Sun8
Mon9
Tue10
Wed11
Thu12
Freezing line
Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (2,047m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

30 Fri
1° / -8°
31 Sat
0° / -8°
1 Sun
-7° / -11°
2 Mon
-4° / -10°
3 Tue
-3° / -10°
4 Wed
-1° / -9°
5 Thu
-1° / -9°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight6 Fri7 Sat8 Sun9 Mon10 Tue11 Wed12 Thu
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️❄️☁️☀️☀️☁️🌤️☁️⛅🌤️☁️☀️☀️☀️☀️
clearclearclearclearclearclearcloudylight snowcloudyclearclearcloudymostly clearcloudysome cloudsmostly clearcloudyclearclearclearclear
Mid-mountain2,047 mModeled
Temp°C1°4°0°1°4°-1°-4°-3°-4°-4°-1°-5°-2°1°-3°-1°3°-2°-1°3°-3°
Feels like°C-3°1°-5°-2°1°-5°-8°-8°-7°-6°-4°-8°-5°-3°-6°-3°0°-6°-4°-1°-7°
Snowcm······0.10.20.1············
Precipmm······0.10.20.1···0.1····0.1···
Windkm/h353362673272242233544
Summit2,865 mModeled
Temp°C-5°-1°-6°-5°-2°-7°-10°-9°-9°-9°-6°-10°-8°-4°-8°-6°-3°-7°-6°-2°-8°
Feels like°C-9°-4°-10°-8°-5°-11°-14°-13°-13°-12°-10°-13°-11°-9°-12°-9°-6°-11°-10°-7°-13°
Snowcm······0.10.30.1···0.1····0.1···
Precipmm······0.10.30.1···0.1····0.1···
Windkm/h353362673272242233544
Base1,229 mModeled
Temp°C5°9°4°5°9°3°1°2°1°1°4°0°1°6°1°3°7°2°3°8°2°
Feels like°C1°8°-1°1°7°-2°-3°-1°-3°-1°1°-3°-2°2°-2°1°6°-2°1°5°-2°
Snowcm·······0.10.1············
Precipmm······0.10.20.1············
Windkm/h132142352152141121353
Humidity%614886595685867992827393787994746083745282
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Arosa Lenzerheide, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Arosa Lenzerheide (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Arosa Lenzerheide El Niño rank & forecast

Arosa Lenzerheide ranks #87 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#87 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Arosa Lenzerheide averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Arosa Lenzerheide sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -3%, '15-16 -5%, '23-24 +37%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −3%'15-16 −6%'23-24 +37%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Arosa Lenzerheide, ERA5 season snowfall median was 457 cm (180 in), about 2% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

457cm

10 El Niño winters · 2% below median

All-season median

466cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10457cm443cm – 468cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12503cm379cm – 549cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8443cm351cm – 510cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Arosa Lenzerheide

How much snow is Arosa Lenzerheide getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Arosa Lenzerheide over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Arosa Lenzerheide?
The full 14-day forecast for Arosa Lenzerheide — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Arosa Lenzerheide?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.