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Author: SnowSure

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Tier B — Favored

North America

Solid

→stable

Scroll for happiness

Last Snowfall

Oct 26

4d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

3cm

7-Day Forecast

11cm

Snow Depth

30cm

Resort reported

☀️❄️

Bluebird Day predicted: Wed

Updated: Oct 30, 10:02 PM•Weather at base: 3,286m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Solid

→stable

Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.

Arapahoe Basin has recently opened for the season, with a limited snow base currently reported. Light snow has added a few centimeters in the past week, and the forecast indicates potential for additional accumulation in the coming days.

AI-generated summary

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Depth

30cm depth — adequate for most conditions.

↓

Recent

In the last seven days, the area received 4cm of new snow.

—

Forecast

11cm in the next 7 days.

—

Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is tracking below typical for this point in the season, with 18cm compared to the 5-year average of 20cm.

Data updated Fri, Oct 30, 10:02 PM UTC

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 10:02 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

18cm

Season

3cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

11cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (3,542m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri 6° / -5°			31 Sat 4° / -5°			1 Sun 4° / -5°			2 Mon -2° / -7°			3 Tue -1° / -8°			4 Wed 3° / -8°			5 Thu -4° / -10°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌤️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☀️	☁️	☀️	⛅	☀️	🌧️	⛅	❄️	☁️	🌤️	⛅	🌤️	☁️	☀️	☀️
	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	mostly clear	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light snow	light snow	light snow	light snow	clear	cloudy	clear	some clouds	clear	light drizzle	some clouds	heavy snow	cloudy	mostly clear	some clouds	mostly clear	cloudy	clear	clear
Mid-mountain3,542 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	6°	-1°	0°	3°	-1°	0°	4°	-1°	-3°	-3°	-2°	-6°	-1°	-6°	-4°	2°	-6°	-5°	-1°	-6°	-4°	-5°	-7°	-4°	-3°	-3°	-4°
Feels like°C	-3°	2°	-6°	-4°	0°	-5°	-4°	1°	-5°	-6°	-8°	-7°	-12°	-6°	-11°	-7°	-3°	-9°	-9°	-9°	-10°	-10°	-12°	-14°	-8°	-7°	-6°	-4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.4	·	·	0.1	·	0.2	0.9	1.6	2.3	0.1	·	0.7	·	0.3	1.3	0.2	·	1.3	2	7.9	0.6	0.6	0.2	·	2.2
Precipmm	·	·	·	0.6	·	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.7	1.2	2.1	3.0	0.1	·	0.8	·	0.4	1.4	0.2	·	1.4	2.0	8.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	·	2.8
Windkm/h	9	6	8	11	12	4	6	11	5	16	20	15	19	13	16	4	5	6	8	15	8	13	20	17	12	15	12	8
Summit3,797 mModeled
Temp°C	-2°	4°	-3°	-2°	1°	-3°	-2°	2°	-2°	-4°	-5°	-4°	-7°	-3°	-7°	-5°	0°	-7°	-7°	-2°	-8°	-5°	-7°	-9°	-6°	-5°	-5°	-6°
Feels like°C	-5°	1°	-8°	-6°	-2°	-7°	-6°	-1°	-7°	-8°	-10°	-9°	-13°	-7°	-13°	-8°	-5°	-11°	-10°	-11°	-12°	-12°	-14°	-15°	-10°	-8°	-8°	-6°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	0.5	·	0.2	0.1	·	0.6	0.9	1.6	2.6	0.1	·	0.7	·	0.4	1.4	0.2	·	1.4	2.1	8.1	0.7	0.6	0.3	·	2.4
Precipmm	·	·	0.1	0.7	·	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.8	1.2	2.1	3.1	0.1	·	0.8	·	0.4	1.4	0.2	·	1.4	2.0	8.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	·	2.8
Windkm/h	9	6	8	11	12	4	6	11	5	16	20	15	19	13	16	4	5	6	8	15	8	13	20	17	12	15	12	8
Base3,286 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	8°	1°	1°	5°	0°	1°	6°	1°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-4°	1°	-4°	-2°	3°	-4°	-4°	1°	-5°	-2°	-4°	-5°	-3°	-2°	-2°	-3°
Feels like°C	-2°	4°	-4°	-2°	2°	-3°	-2°	2°	-3°	-4°	-6°	-5°	-10°	-4°	-9°	-5°	-1°	-8°	-7°	-7°	-8°	-9°	-11°	-12°	-7°	-5°	-5°	-2°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.3	·	·	·	·	·	0.8	1.5	1.9	0.1	·	0.6	·	0.2	1.2	0.1	·	1.2	1.8	7.6	0.6	0.6	0.2	·	2.1
Precipmm	·	·	·	0.5	·	·	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.2	2.1	3.0	0.1	·	0.8	·	0.4	1.4	0.2	·	1.4	2.0	8.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	·	2.8
Windkm/h	9	6	8	11	12	4	6	11	5	16	20	15	19	13	16	4	5	6	8	15	8	13	20	17	12	15	12	8
Humidity%	43	29	72	85	47	82	74	67	89	93	89	95	85	54	81	38	54	74	84	78	94	74	68	66	37	44	47	39
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,000	2,500	2,550	2,800	3,200	3,150	2,850
Sunhours																						8.8	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.8	8.7

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Arapahoe Basin, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Arapahoe Basin (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Arapahoe Basin El Niño rank & forecast

Arapahoe Basin ranks #151 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +5% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#151 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +5% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Arapahoe Basin averaged +5% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Arapahoe Basin sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -19%, '15-16 +1%, '23-24 +33%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −19%'15-16 +1%'23-24 +33%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Arapahoe Basin, ERA5 season snowfall median was 292 cm (115 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

292cm

10 El Niño winters · 3% above median

All-season median

284cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	292cm	270cm – 322cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	278cm	238cm – 299cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	280cm	230cm – 299cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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