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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Opens November 28, 2026

Best months to book: April, March, February · last season + 30-yr record

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Opens Nov 28

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 30

today

Past 24 Hours

15cm

Past 48 Hours

15cm

Past 10 Days

28cm

7-Day Forecast

70cm

Snow Depth

❄ Heavy, wet

Updated: Oct 30, 9:01 PM•Weather at base: 76m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Opens Nov 28

Alyeska Resort opens November 28, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1April135cm avg · last season 37.5
#2March131cm avg · last season 39.7
#3February166cm avg · last season 33

Best weeks to book

#1 12 Apr – 15 Apr · last season 45.3
#2 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 44.6
#3 15 Mar – 21 Mar · last season 40.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 30 at 9:01 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

156cm

Season

8cm

Past 10 days48H 3cm · 24H 0cm

29cm

Today

41cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed28

Thu29

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

TODAY30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

Tue10

Wed11

Thu12

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past snow measured by Mt. Alyeska SNOTEL at 457 m (1,500 ft), mid height.

Hourly Forecast

	30 Fri -3° / -5°			31 Sat -3° / -6°			1 Sun -3° / -5°			2 Mon -2° / -5°			3 Tue -1° / -3°			4 Wed -2° / -5°			5 Thu -2° / -7°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	6 Fri	7 Sat	8 Sun	9 Mon	10 Tue	11 Wed	12 Thu
Conditions	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	☁️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	☁️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	❄️
	rain	rain	snow	snow	cloudy	light snow	snow	light drizzle	light snow	light snow	light drizzle	drizzle	light rain	light rain	light rain	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light snow	drizzle	drizzle	drizzle	heavy drizzle	light drizzle	snow	snow	light drizzle	light snow
Mid-mountain639 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	1°	0°	0°	1°	0°	0°	1°	0°	0°	1°	0°	1°	1°	1°	1°	1°	0°	0°	1°	0°	1°	0°	-1°	0°	0°	-3°	-3°
Feels like°C	-4°	-3°	-4°	-4°	-3°	-4°	-4°	-2°	-4°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-2°	-1°	-2°	-2°	-1°	-3°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-1°	-1°	-3°	-3°	-3°	-4°	-6°
Snowcm	13.1	11	6.1	0.5	1	3.4	1.7	2	1.6	0.7	0.9	2.2	4.5	·	5.4	·	·	7.7	1.4	0.5	5.2	6.9	5.4	4.5	13.8	7.4	0.4	0.5
Precipmm	19.5	22.5	10.8	0.7	1.8	5.1	2.5	3.0	2.4	1.1	1.6	3.3	6.7	10.1	10.6	4.5	3.2	11.4	2.1	2.1	7.7	27.2	9.2	6.7	20.5	10.7	0.7	0.4
Windkm/h	15	11	9	5	4	4	5	2	3	4	5	5	10	9	6	3	3	4	6	8	7	5	7	5	7	5	5	4
Summit1,201 mModeled
Temp°C	-3°	-2°	-3°	-3°	-2°	-3°	-4°	-3°	-4°	-4°	-2°	-4°	-3°	-2°	-3°	-2°	-2°	-3°	-3°	-2°	-3°	-3°	-3°	-5°	-4°	-4°	-6°	-7°
Feels like°C	-8°	-7°	-8°	-8°	-7°	-8°	-8°	-6°	-8°	-8°	-6°	-8°	-6°	-6°	-6°	-6°	-5°	-7°	-8°	-6°	-7°	-5°	-5°	-8°	-7°	-7°	-8°	-10°
Snowcm	15.5	17.3	7.4	0.7	2	3.9	1.8	2	1.6	0.7	1	2.3	4.3	7.2	7	2.9	2.3	7.4	1.4	1.4	5	18	6.2	5.7	15.3	7.7	0.5	0.5
Precipmm	22.1	24.7	10.8	1.0	2.9	5.6	2.6	3.0	2.4	1.0	1.5	3.3	6.3	10.3	10.4	4.3	3.4	10.8	2.0	2.1	7.4	26.5	9.1	6.7	20.5	10.7	0.7	0.4
Windkm/h	15	11	9	5	4	4	5	2	3	4	5	5	10	9	6	3	3	4	6	8	7	5	7	5	7	5	5	4
Base76 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	5°	4°	4°	5°	3°	3°	4°	3°	3°	4°	4°	4°	5°	4°	5°	5°	4°	4°	5°	3°	4°	4°	2°	3°	3°	1°	0°
Feels like°C	0°	1°	0°	0°	2°	0°	0°	2°	0°	1°	2°	1°	2°	3°	2°	3°	4°	1°	0°	2°	1°	3°	3°	1°	1°	1°	0°	-2°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.1	·	0.1	0.2
Precipmm	21.6	24.0	10.6	0.8	1.9	5.2	2.7	3.3	2.6	1.3	1.9	3.6	8.0	11.8	12.3	4.5	3.7	13.4	2.7	2.4	8.3	27.2	9.2	6.7	20.5	10.7	0.7	0.4
Windkm/h	15	11	9	5	4	4	5	2	3	4	5	5	10	9	6	3	3	4	6	8	7	5	7	5	7	5	5	4
Humidity%	88	89	90	90	86	88	88	89	90	91	86	90	86	87	89	93	89	94	85	84	83	90	85	87	81	84	74	62
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	750	750	300	400	550	100	100
Sunhours																						2.5	2.5	4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.3

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Alyeska Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Alyeska Resort (cascades), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Alaska region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Alyeska Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Alyeska Resort ranks #18 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +20% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#18 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +20% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Alyeska Resort averaged +20% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Alyeska Resort with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 +44%, '15-16 +45%, '23-24 -29%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 +45%'15-16 +45%'23-24 −29%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Alyeska Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 1378 cm (543 in), about 9% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

1,378cm

10 El Niño winters · 9% above median

All-season median

1,262cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	1,378cm	1,194cm – 1,516cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	1,275cm	1,092cm – 1,526cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	1,190cm	1,100cm – 1,257cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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