Mid-October Andes System
2 resorts in the path, 31cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one; likely at 1 of 2 resorts.
+31CM
Predicted at Valle Nevado
9–58cm across the models
Storm
Oct 11–13
2 resorts in the path
Peak
Oct 11
13cm at Valle Nevado
Predicted
31cm
Valle Nevado · 9–58cm across the models
Confidence
Likely
Likely at 1 of 2 resorts
Updated
Oct 3, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 3, 18:30 UTC
Current prediction: 31cm for Valle Nevado between 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-13, 31cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-11 at 13cm. Also in the path: Lagunillas 31cm. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. By resort: Likely at 1 of 2 resorts. On day one we said 31cm for Valle Nevado; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 1·Oct 3·Likely·31cmFirst prediction
Valle Nevado forecast: 31.1cm over Oct 11–13, range 9.4–57.9cm
The prediction for the mid-October Andes system indicates a total of 31.1cm for Valle Nevado over the window from October 11 to October 13, with a range of 9.4–57.9cm. The biggest day is expected to be October 11, with 12.6cm of snow. This forecast is based on a likely confidence level and a new trend emerging in the data. Valle Nevado stands to benefit significantly from this system, while other resorts in the region may not see comparable totals. Should the atmospheric conditions shift or models diverge in the coming days, it could alter the expected outcomes for Valle Nevado and potentially other areas.
Window Oct 11–13 · Valle Nevado
Snow by day
Oct 10 – Oct 14, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Valle Nevadobase 2,860 m · summit 3,670 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Lagunillasbase 2,200 m · summit 2,422 m
—cm snow
no daily data
No daily series on file for these resorts yet.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
The prediction is what we said before the snow. The receipt is what actually fell.
What fell
Every watch ends in a public receipt, hit or miss.
- Valle NevadoWe predicted 31cm. 0cm fell.Miss
Last updated 2026-10-04 00:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-03 with 31cm forecast at Valle Nevado.
