Late-October Tasman System

1. Day 3·Oct 22·Watching·46cm(+13)

   Day 3: totals up 13cm, 0–125cm for Whakapapa

   Day 3: totals up 13cm at Whakapapa, the window moved 1 day earlier. Current prediction: 0–125cm for Whakapapa between 2026-10-28 and 2026-11-01, 46cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-30 at 19cm. Whakapapa is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 32cm from 2026-10-29; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 6 days to go.

   Window Oct 28–Nov 1 · Whakapapa

2. Day 2·Oct 21·Watching·33cm(+1)

   Day 2: call holds, 8–72cm for Whakapapa

   Day 2: totals held at Whakapapa, the window held, confidence moved from likely to watching. Current prediction: 8–72cm for Whakapapa between 2026-10-29 and 2026-10-31, 33cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-31 at 17cm. Whakapapa is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 32cm from 2026-10-29; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 8 days to go.

   Window Oct 29–31 · Whakapapa

3. Day 1·Oct 20·Likely·32cmFirst prediction

   Late-October Tasman System: 31.6cm for Whakapapa, 5–73.7cm range

   THE PREDICTION: From October 29 to 31, we expect Whakapapa to receive 31.6cm of snow, with a range of 5–73.7cm. This forecast is based on current model trends that suggest a favorable pattern for snowfall across the region. Whakapapa is likely to see the most significant accumulation, particularly on October 30, when we anticipate a peak of 14.7cm. Other resorts may not experience the same level of snowfall, potentially missing out on substantial totals. Changes in atmospheric conditions or model discrepancies could alter this prediction, but for now, confidence remains likely.

   Window Oct 29–31 · Whakapapa

snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.

Enlarge rain / snow line

• LiveWhakapapaon trackPredicted0cm