Mid-October Tasman System
1 resort in the path, 32cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one.
+32CM
Predicted at Mt Hutt
3–88cm, models far apart
Storm
Oct 14–16
1 resort in the path
Peak
Oct 15
12cm at Mt Hutt
Predicted
32cm
Mt Hutt · 3–88cm, models far apart
Confidence
Likely
Updated
Oct 11, 12:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 11, 12:30 UTC
Current prediction: 32cm for Mt Hutt between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-16, 32cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-15 at 12cm. Mt Hutt is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. On day one we said 32cm for Mt Hutt; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 1·Oct 11·Likely·32cmFirst prediction
Confidence builds: 31.6cm for Mt Hutt Oct 14–16, range 3.3–88.1cm
The prediction for the mid-October Tasman System indicates a total of 31.6cm for Mt Hutt over the window from 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-16, with a range of 3.3–88.1cm. The most significant snowfall is expected on 2026-10-15, with 11.8cm likely. This pattern suggests a favorable setup for snowfall across New Zealand and Australia, particularly benefiting Mt Hutt. While Mt Hutt stands to gain, other resorts may not see similar totals, potentially missing out on significant accumulation. Changes in the storm's trajectory or intensity could alter these predictions, leading to adjustments in expected totals.
Window Oct 14–16 · Mt Hutt
Snow by day
Oct 13 – Oct 17, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Mt Huttbase 1,500 m · summit 2,086 m
—cm snow
no daily data
No daily series on file for these resorts yet.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-11 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-11 with 32cm forecast at Mt Hutt.
