Early-November North Atlantic System
1 resort in the path, 6cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one.
+6CM
Predicted at Gudauri
0–15cm, models far apart
Storm
Nov 5–7
1 resort in the path
Peak
Nov 5
5cm at Gudauri
Predicted
6cm
Gudauri · 0–15cm, models far apart
Confidence
Likely
Updated
Oct 28, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 28, 18:30 UTC
We are watching a significant system for the Alps and wider Europe between 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-07. Gudauri carries the biggest signal at 5.8cm over 2026-11-05 to 2026-11-07. At Gudauri the freezing level on the snow days sits between base and summit: snow on the upper mountain, rain possible low down. The call changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher.
Snow by day
Nov 4 – Nov 8, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Gudauribase 2,200 m · summit 3,276 m
6cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 3,276 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 4
Mixed
Thu
Nov 5
Snow
Fri
Nov 6
Dry
Sat
Nov 7
Snow
Sun
Nov 8
Dry
snow Thu, Sat
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-28 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-28 with 49cm forecast at Gudauri.
